Abstract
Sustainable manufacturing practices are a dominating consideration for legacy factories. Major attention is being applied to improving current practices to more sustainable ones. This research provides a case study of a batch manufacturing pharmaceutical facility and compares a number of approaches to modelling the electrical energy consumption in the plant. An accurate model of the electrical energy in the facility will allow more sustainable approaches to be developed. This can be achieved by improving current processes to reduce the electrical load. Historical electrical energy data were modelled using traditional time series methods. Historical manufacturing data and the electrical energy data were used to develop machine learning models using a feedforward neural network and a random forest. All of the approaches were then compared. The major challenge posed in model development and validation was acquiring data suitable for machine learning. The manufacturing data were stored in hand-written records. These records needed to be digitised and then go through a number of transformative steps before the data were suitable for modelling. The random forest model successfully modelled the energy profile of the facility. The model can be used to predict and better manage the plant electrical energy load.













Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.References
Ahmad, M.W., Mourshed, M., Rezgui, Y.: Trees vs neurons: comparison between random forest and ANN for high-resolution prediction of building energy consumption. Energy Build. 147, 77–89 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.04.038
Allaire, J., Chollet, F.: keras: R Interface to ’Keras’ (2018). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=keras. R package version 2.2.4
Allaire, J., Tang, Y.: tensorflow: R Interface to ’TensorFlow’ (2018). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=tensorflow. R package version 1.10
Blum, A., Langley, P.: Selection of relevant features and examples in machine learning. Artif. Intell. 97(1–2), 245–271 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0004-3702(97)00063-5
Box, G., Jenkins, G.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 1st edn. Holden-Day, Eagle Farm (1970)
Breiman, L.: Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24(2), 123–140 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00058655
Breiman, L.: Random Forests. Mach. Learn. 45(1), 5–32 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324
Breiman, L., Friedman, J., Stone, C., Olshen, R.: Classification and Regression Trees. Chapman and Hall, Baco Raton (1984)
Chae, Y.T., Horesh, R., Hwang, Y., Lee, Y.M.: Artificial neural network model for forecasting sub-hourly electricity usage in commercial buildings. Energy Build. 111, 184–194 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2015.11.045
Corporation, M., Weston, S.: doParallel: Foreach Parallel Adaptor for the ‘parallel’ Package (2019). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=doParallel. R package version 1.0.15
De Stefani, J., Le Borgne, Y.A., Caelen, O., Hattab, D., Bontempi, G.: Batch and incremental dynamic factor machine learning for multivariate and multi-step-ahead forecasting. Int. J. Data Sci. Anal. 7(4), 311–329 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-018-0150-x
Deb, C., Zhang, F., Yang, J., Lee, S.E., Shah, K.W.: A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 74, 902–924 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.085
Efron, B.: Bootstrap methods: another look at the Jackknife. Ann. Stat. 7(1), 1–26 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344552
Fan, C., Wang, J., Gang, W., Li, S.: Assessment of deep recurrent neural network-based strategies for short-term building energy predictions. Appl. Energy 236, 700–710 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.004
Flath, C.M., Stein, N.: Towards a data science toolbox for industrial analytics applications. Comput. Ind. 94, 16–25 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2017.09.003
Gahm, C., Denz, F., Dirr, M., Tuma, A.: Energy-efficient scheduling in manufacturing companies: a review and research framework. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 248(3), 744–757 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.017
Grolemund, G., Wickham, H.: Dates and times made easy with lubridate. J. Stat. Softw. 40(3), 1–25 (2011)
Guyon, I., Elisseeff, A.: An introduction to variable and feature selection. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3(3), 1157–1182 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aca.2011.07.027
Hahnloser, R.H.R., Sarpeshkar, R., Mahowald, M.A., Douglas, R.J., Seung, H.S.: Digital selection and analogue amplification coexist in a cortex-inspired silicon circuit. Nature 405(6789), 947–951 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1038/35016072
Harjunkoski, I., Maravelias, C.T., Bongers, P., Castro, P.M., Engell, S., Grossmann, I.E., Hooker, J., Méndez, C., Sand, G., Wassick, J.: Scope for industrial applications of production scheduling models and solution methods. Comput. Chem. Eng. 62, 161–193 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2013.12.001
Heaton, J.: Introduction to Neural Networks with Java, 2nd edn. Heaton Research, New York (2008)
Heaton, J.: Artificial Intelligence for Humans, Volume 3: Deep Learning and Neural Networks. Heaton Research, New York (2015)
Hyndman, R.J., Athanasopoulos, G.: Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 2nd edn. OTexts, New York (2018)
Hyndman, R.J., Khandakar, Y.: Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R. J. Stat. Softw. 26(3), 1–22 (2008)
Jiménez-González, C., Constable, D.J.C., Ponder, C.S.: Evaluating the ‘Greenness’ of chemical processes and products in the pharmaceutical industry: a green metrics primer. Chem. Soc. Rev. 41(4), 1485–1498 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1039/C1CS15215G
Kuhn, M., Johnson, K.: Applied Predictive Modeling. Springer, New York (2013)
Kuhn, M., Wing, J., Weston, S., Williams, A., Keefer, C., Engelhardt, A., Cooper, T., Mayer, Z., Kenkel, B., the R Core Team, Benesty, M., Lescarbeau, R., Ziem, A., Scrucca, L., Tang, Y., Candan, C., Hunt, T.: caret: Classification and Regression Training (2018). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=caret. R package version 6.0-81
Lee, C.K.M., Zhang, S.Z., Ng, K.K.H.: Development of an industrial Internet of things suite for smart factory towards re-industrialization. Adv. Manuf. 5(4), 335–343 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40436-017-0197-2
Liaw, A., Wiener, M.: Classification and regression by randomforest. R News 2(3), 18–22 (2002)
Marsh, J.L., Eyers, D.R.: Increasing production efficiency through electronic batch record systems : a case study. In: Sustainable Design and Manufacturing 2016, pp. 261–269. Springer, Berlin (2016)
Mat Daut, M.A., Hassan, M.Y., Abdullah, H., Rahman, H.A., Abdullah, M.P., Hussin, F.: Building electrical energy consumption forecasting analysis using conventional and artificial intelligence methods: a review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 70, 1108–1118 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.015
Microsoft, Weston, S.: foreach: Provides Foreach Looping Construct for R (2017). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=foreach. R package version 1.4.4
Molina-Solana, M., Ros, M., Ruiz, M.D., Gómez-Romero, J., Martin-Bautista, M.: Data science for building energy management: a review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 70, 598–609 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.132
Mulrennan, K., Awad, M., Donovan, J., Macpherson, R., Tormey, D.: Identifying highly variable and energy intensive batch manufacturing processes using statistical methodologies. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Manufacturing Research, ICMR 2019 (2019)
Mulrennan, K., Donovan, J., Tormey, D., Macpherson, R.: A data science approach to modelling a manufacturing facility’s electrical energy profile from plant production data. In: 2018 IEEE 5th International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA), pp. 387–391. IEEE (2018). https://doi.org/10.1109/DSAA.2018.00050
Nair, V., Hinton, G.E.: Rectified linear units improve restricted boltzmann machines. In: Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML’10, pp. 807–814. Omnipress, USA (2010). http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=3104322.3104425
Nichiforov, C., Stamatescu, I., Fagarasan, I., Stamatescu, G.: Energy consumption forecasting using ARIMA and neural network models. In: 2017 5th International Symposium on Electrical and Electronics Engineering (ISEEE), pp. 1–4. IEEE (2017). https://doi.org/10.1109/ISEEE.2017.8170657
O’Donovan, P., Leahy, K., Bruton, K., O’Sullivan, D.T.J.: An industrial big data pipeline for data-driven analytics maintenance applications in large-scale smart manufacturing facilities. J. Big Data 2(1), 25 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40537-015-0034-z
Pearson, C.H.: Dates and times in excel (2018). http://www.cpearson.com/excel/datetime.htm
Peng, T., Xu, X.: Energy-efficient machining systems: a critical review. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. 72(9–12), 1389–1406 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-014-5756-0
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing (2018). http://www.R-project.org/. R version 3.5.0
RStudio Team: RStudio: Integrated Development Environment for R. RStudio, Inc., Boston, MA (2018). http://www.rstudio.com/. RStudio version 1.1.447
Rumelhart, D., Hinton, G., Williams, R.: Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323(6088), 533–536 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1038/323533a0
Shrouf, F., Gong, B., Ordieres-Meré, J.: Multi-level awareness of energy used in production processes. J. Clean. Prod. 142, 2570–2585 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.019
Shrouf, F., Ordieres, J., Miragliotta, G.: Smart factories in Industry 4.0: A review of the concept and of energy management approached in production based on the Internet of Things paradigm. In: 2014 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, vol. 2015-January, pp. 697–701. IEEE (2014). https://doi.org/10.1109/IEEM.2014.7058728
Shumway, R.H., Stoffer, D.S.: Time Series Analysis and Its Applications. Springer Texts in Statistics. Springer, Berlin (2017)
Srivastava, N., Hinton, G., Krizhevsky, A., Sutskever, I., Salakhutdinov, R.: Dropout: a simple way to prevent neural networks from overfitting. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 15, 1929–1958 (2014)
Stolpe, M., Blom, H., Morik, K.: Sustainable industrial processes by embedded real-time quality prediction. In: Sustainability, vol. 645. Springer, Berlin (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31858-5_10
Vaghefi, A., Jafari, M., Bisse, E., Lu, Y., Brouwer, J.: Modeling and forecasting of cooling and electricity load demand. Appl. Energy 136, 186–196 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.09.004
Walsh, S.: A summary of climate averages for Ireland 1981-2010. Technical Report, Met Éireann (2012). http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/SummaryClimAvgs.pdf
Wang, Y., Gan, D., Sun, M., Zhang, N., Lu, Z., Kang, C.: Probabilistic individual load forecasting using pinball loss guided LSTM. Appl. Energy 235, 10–20 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.10.078
Wang, Z., Srinivasan, R.S.: A review of artificial intelligence based building energy use prediction: contrasting the capabilities of single and ensemble prediction models. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 75, 796–808 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.079
Wang, Z., Wang, Y., Zeng, R., Srinivasan, R.S., Ahrentzen, S.: Random forest based hourly building energy prediction. Energy Build. (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.04.008
Wickham, H.: Reshaping data with the reshape package. J. Stat. Softw. 21(12), 1–20 (2007)
Wickham, H.: ggplot2, 2 edn. Use R! Springer International Publishing (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24277-4
Wickham, H.: tidyverse: Easily Install and Load the ’Tidyverse’ (2017). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=tidyverse. R package version 1.2.1
Wickham, H., Bryan, J.: readxl: Read Excel Files (2018). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=readxl. R package version 1.1.0
Wickham, H., Francois, R., Henry, L., Muller, K.: dplyr: A Grammar of Data Manipulation (2018). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dplyr. R package version 0.7.8
Zhang, Z., Tang, R., Peng, T., Tao, L., Jia, S.: A method for minimizing the energy consumption of machining system: integration of process planning and scheduling. J. Clean. Prod. 137, 1647–1662 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.03.101
Acknowledgements
The North West Centre for Advanced Manufacturing (NW CAM) project is supported by the European Union’s INTERREG VA Programme, managed by the Special EU Programmes Body (SEUPB). The views and opinions in this document do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission or the Special EU Programmes Body (SEUPB).
If you would like further information about NW CAM please contact the lead partner, Catalyst Inc, for details.
The authors wish to thank Eugene McHenry (GlaxoSmithKline, Sligo, Ireland), Ruaidhri McDaid (GlaxoSmithKline, Sligo, Ireland) and GlaxoSmithKline for supporting the project.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflicts of interest
On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This paper is an extension with significant additions of the DSAA’2018 Application Track paper titled ‘A data science approach to modelling a manufacturing facility’s electrical energy profile from plant production data’ [35].
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mulrennan, K., Awad, M., Donovan, J. et al. Modelling the electrical energy profile of a batch manufacturing pharmaceutical facility. Int J Data Sci Anal 10, 285–300 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-020-00217-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-020-00217-1