Abstract
We present a stochastic evolutionary phosphorus–algae–zooplankton model with phosphorus recycling and originally investigate the patterns and outcomes of adaptive changes in algal cell size, under the influence of environmental fluctuations. The threshold that determines whether the stochastic model will ecologically persist or not is first obtained. We then introduce fitness functions with stochastic fluctuations and obtain the evolutionary conditions for continuously stable strategy (CSS) and evolutionary branching, confirmed by numerical simulation. Our results predict that environmental fluctuation could drive algal evolution toward smaller cell size. Algal cell size varies significantly with phosphorus input in the presence of zooplankton, but has no response to the changing phosphorus inflow without zooplankton, and evolutionary branching will never occur without zooplankton. With the existence of zooplankton that has a fixed trait, evolutionary branching occurs with small environmental fluctuation and moderate phosphorus inflow, and the existence of environmental fluctuation could narrow the cell size difference between the newly emerging algal species, while large fluctuation or extreme phosphorus inflow will result in CSS. Moreover, environmental fluctuation potentially benefits algal biodiversity in eutrophic environments, and oligotrophication inhibits algal diversity. For the coevolution of algae and zooplankton, evolutionary cycling could appear, i.e., algal cell size and zooplankton body size can coevolve to a stable limit cycle (the Red Queen dynamics) in an eutrophic environment. In oligotrophic or moderate phosphorus environments, the influence of environmental fluctuation on algal evolution in the coevolution process is similar to the scenario that algae evolves only.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to both the handling editor and two reviewers for their comments and valuable suggestions, which have greatly improved the quality and presentation of the paper.
Funding
S. Yuan and S. Zhao are partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11671260; 12071293). H. Wang is partially supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Discovery Grant RGPIN-2020-03911 and Accelerator Supplement Grant RGPAS-2020-00090).
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Appendices
Appendix A: Proof of Theorem 2
Proof
Applying the It\(\hat{\mathrm {o}}\)’s formula to the second and third equations of A and Z in model (2), integrating both sides from 0 to t and then dividing t on both sides yield
where \(M_{i}(t)=\int _{0}^{t}\mathrm {d}B_{i}(t)\), \(i=1,2,3\). Let \(V_{1}=P+Q(x)A+q(y)Z\), then
where \(h_{1}=\min \{e,s_{1}(x),s_{2}(y)\}\). Integrating both sides of Eq. (A.49) from 0 to t and dividing t on both sides lead to
where \(\psi (t)=V_{1}(t)-V_{1}(0)-\sigma _{1}N_{1}(t)-\sigma _{2}(x,\rho _{1})Q(x)N_{2}(t) -\sigma _{3}(y,\rho _{2})q(y)N_{3}(t),\) \(N_{j}(t)=\int _{0}^{t}\varPhi _{j}(s)\mathrm {d}B_{j}(t)\), \(j=1,2,3\). According to Theorem 1 and the strong law of large numbers for local martingales (Mao 2006), we have
We next are going to prove Theorem 2 step by step based on Eqs. (A.47)–(A.51).
-
(1)
We first prove the first conclusion of Theorem 3. From (A.50),
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}P(s)\mathrm {d}s\le P_\mathrm{in}-\frac{\psi _{1}}{et}, \end{aligned}$$(A.52)Substituting (A.52) into (A.47) yields
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{1}{t}\ln \frac{ A(t)}{A(0)}\le \alpha \mu (x) P_\mathrm{in}-\eta (x,\rho _{1}) -\frac{\alpha \mu (x)}{e}\frac{\psi _{1}}{t}+\sigma _{2}(x,\rho _{1})\frac{M_{2}(t)}{t}, \end{aligned}$$then when \(P_\mathrm{in}<\frac{\eta (x,\rho _{1})}{\alpha \mu (x)}\), together with (A.51) we have \(\limsup _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln A(t)}{t}<0\), that is
$$\begin{aligned} \lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }A(t)=0,\ \ a.s. \end{aligned}$$Consequently from (A.48), \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }Z(t)=0,\ a.s.\) Moreover, according to (A.50) and (A.51), \(\langle P \rangle =P_\mathrm{in}\). The first conclusion of Theorem 2 is proved.
-
(2)
We now proceed to the proof of the second conclusion. From (A.50),
$$\begin{aligned}&\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}P(s)\mathrm {d}s= P_\mathrm{in}-\frac{s_{1}(x)Q(x)}{e}\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}A(s)\mathrm {d}s\nonumber \\&\quad -\frac{s_{2}(y)q(y)}{e}\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}Z(s)\mathrm {d}s-\frac{\psi _{1}}{et}, \end{aligned}$$(A.53)Substituting (A.53) into (A.47) yields
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{1}{t}\ln \frac{ A(t)}{A(0)}=&\alpha \mu (x) P_\mathrm{in}-\eta (x,\rho _{1})-\frac{\alpha \mu (x) s_{1}(x)Q(x)}{e}\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}A(s)\mathrm {d}s +\sigma _{2}(x,\rho _{1})\frac{M_{2}(t)}{t}\nonumber \\&-\frac{\alpha \mu (x)}{e}\frac{\psi _{1}}{t}-\left( \frac{\alpha \mu (x)s_{2}(y)q(y)}{e}+c(x,y)\right) \frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}Z(s)\mathrm {d}s. \end{aligned}$$(A.54)Obviously,
$$\begin{aligned}&\frac{1}{t}\ln \frac{ A(t)}{A(0)}\le \alpha \mu (x) P_\mathrm{in}-\eta (x,\rho _{1})-\frac{\alpha \mu (x) s_{1}(x)Q(x)}{e}\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}A(s)\mathrm {d}s\\&\quad -\frac{\alpha \mu (x)}{e}\frac{\psi _{1}}{t}+\sigma _{2}(x,\rho _{1})\frac{M_{2}(t)}{t}. \end{aligned}$$When \(P_\mathrm{in}>\frac{\eta (x,\rho _{1})}{\alpha \mu (x)}\), it then follows from Lemma 4 in Liu and Bai (2016) that
$$\begin{aligned} \overline{\langle A(x,y) \rangle }\le \frac{(\alpha \mu (x) P_\mathrm{in}-\eta (x,\rho _{1}))e}{\alpha \mu (x) s_{1}(x)Q(x)}=\frac{1}{s_{1}(x)Q(x)}\left( eP_\mathrm{in}-\frac{e\eta (x,\rho _{1})}{\alpha \mu (x)}\right) ,\ \ a.s.\nonumber \\ \end{aligned}$$(A.55)Substituting (A.55) into (A.48) leads to
$$\begin{aligned} \limsup _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln Z(t)}{t}\le&\delta c(x,y)\overline{\langle A(x,y) \rangle }-\kappa (y,\rho _{2})\\ =&\frac{\delta c(x,y)}{s_{1}(x)Q(x)}\lambda (x,y), \end{aligned}$$thus when \(\lambda (x,y)<0\), \(\limsup _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln Z(t)}{t}<0\), i.e., \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }Z(t)=0\), a.s. Thus, for any \(\varepsilon _{1}>0\), there exists \(T_{1} >0\) and a set \(\varOmega _{\varepsilon _{1}}\) with \({\mathcal {P}}(\varOmega _{\varepsilon _{1}})>1-\varepsilon _{1}\), such that for any \(t>T_{1}\) and \(\omega \in \varOmega _{\varepsilon _{1}}\), \(\left( \frac{\alpha \mu (x)s_{2}(y)q(y)}{e}+c(x,y)\right) \frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}Z(s)\mathrm {d}s< \varepsilon _{1}\) holds. It then follows from (A.54) that
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{1}{t}\ln \frac{ A(t)}{A(0)}\ge & {} \alpha \mu (x) P_\mathrm{in}-\eta (x,\rho _{1})-\varepsilon _{1}-\frac{\alpha \mu (x) s_{1}(x)Q(x)}{e}\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}A(s)\mathrm {d}s\\&-\frac{\alpha \mu (x)}{e}\frac{\psi _{1}}{t}+\sigma _{2}(x,\rho _{1})\frac{M_{2}(t)}{t}. \end{aligned}$$Again, according to Lemma 4 in Liu and Bai (2016) and the arbitrariness of \(\varepsilon _{1}\),
$$\begin{aligned} \underline{\langle A(x,y) \rangle }\ge \frac{1}{s_{1}(x)Q(x)}\left( eP_\mathrm{in}-\frac{e\eta (x,\rho _{1})}{\alpha \mu (x)}\right) ,\ \ a.s. \end{aligned}$$(A.56)Combining (A.56) with (A.55), we have \(\langle A(x) \rangle =\frac{1}{s_{1}(x)Q(x)}\left( eP_\mathrm{in}-\frac{e\eta (x,\rho _{1})}{\alpha \mu (x)}\right) ,\) a.s. Consequently, it is easy to obtain from (A.50) that \(\langle P(x) \rangle =\frac{\eta (x,\rho _{1})}{\alpha \mu (x)}\), a.s. The second conclusion is thus proved.
-
(3)
We now are going to prove the last conclusion of Theorem 2. From (A.48) and together with Lemma 1,
$$\begin{aligned} \overline{\langle A(x,y) \rangle }\le \frac{ \kappa (y,\rho _{2})}{\delta c(x,y)},\ \ a.s. \end{aligned}$$(A.57)Moreover, according to (A.54) we have
$$\begin{aligned}&\left( \frac{\alpha \mu (x)s_{2}(y)q(y)}{e}+c(x,y)\right) \underline{\langle Z(x,y) \rangle }\nonumber \\&\ge \alpha \mu (x) P_\mathrm{in}-\eta (x,\rho _{1})-\frac{\alpha \mu (x) s_{1}(x)Q(x)}{e}\overline{\langle A(x,y) \rangle }. \end{aligned}$$(A.58)Together with (A.57), we can conclude that when \(\lambda (x,y)>0\),
$$\begin{aligned} \underline{\langle Z(x,y) \rangle }\ge \frac{\lambda (x,y)}{s_{2}(y)q(y)+ec(x,y)/\alpha \mu (x)}>0, \ \ a.s. \end{aligned}$$Then, we have \(\limsup _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln A(t)}{t}=0\), a.s., otherwise, \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }A(t)=0\), and consequently \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }Z(t)=0\), a.s. According to (A.47),
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{1}{t}\ln \frac{ A(t)}{A(0)}\le \alpha \mu (x)\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}P(s)\mathrm {d}s-c(x,y)\frac{1}{t}\int _{0}^{t}Z(s)\mathrm {d}s +\sigma _{2}(x,\rho _{1})\frac{M_{2}(t)}{t}, \end{aligned}$$consequently,
$$\begin{aligned} \underline{\langle P(x,y) \rangle }\ge \frac{c(x,y)}{\alpha \mu (x)}\overline{\langle Z(x,y)\rangle }>0,\ \ a.s. \end{aligned}$$Applying the same method to (A.48), we have \(\underline{\langle A(x,y) \rangle }>0,\ \ a.s\). The proof is thus completed.
\(\square \)
Appendix B: Proof of Theorem 3
Before the proof of Theorem 3, we need the following lemma from Khasminskii (2012). Suppose that X(t) is a homogeneous Markov process in n-dimension Euclidean space \(R^{n}\), satisfying the following stochastic differential equation:
where \(\sigma _{r}(X)=(\sigma _{r}^{1}(X),\sigma _{r}^{2}(X)\ldots , \sigma _{r}^{n}(X))^{T}\), \(B(X)=(a_{ij}(X))_{n\times n}\) is the diffusion matrix of X(t) with \(a_{ij}(X)=\sum _{r=1}^{k}\sigma _{r}^{i}(X)\sigma _{r}^{j}(X)\).
Lemma 2
(Khasminskii 2012). If there exists a bounded open domain \(U\subset R^{n}\) with regular boundary, satisfying the following properties:
- (H1):
-
The diffusion matrix B(x) is strictly positive definite for all \(x\in U\);
- (H2):
-
There exists a nonnegative \(C^{2}\)-function V(X) such that \({\mathscr {L}}V(X)\) is negative on \(X\in R^{n}\setminus U\).
Then, the Markov process X(t) of the stochastic model (B.59) admits a unique stationary distribution \(\pi (\cdot )\), and for any integrable function \(f(\cdot )\) with regard to the measure \(\pi \), the following equation holds,
In what follows, we are going to apply Lemma 2 to prove the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution for model (2).
Proof
Define a nonnegative \({\mathcal {C}}^{2}-\)Lyapunov function
\(V_{2}^{*}\) is the minimum value of \(V_{2}(P,A,Z)\) and
where \(m_{3}=\frac{s_{1}(x)Q(x)}{\delta c(x,y)},\ m_{4}=\frac{e}{ \alpha \mu (x) },\ m_{5}=(m_{4}c(x,y)+s_{2}(y)q(y))/(s_{2}(y)+d_{2})\), \(0<\theta _{1}<1\) is a constant which is small enough such that
and the positive constant \(M_{2}\) satisfying
where \(f^{u}=\sup _{t\in (0,\infty )}f(t)\) and the function \(f_{1}\) will be determined later.
By using the It\(\hat{\mathrm {o}}\) formula, we have
Then,
where
Denote
then
Thus, we can take \(0<\varepsilon _{2} <1\) sufficiently small such that
where \(U_{1}=[\varepsilon _{2}, \frac{1}{\varepsilon _{2}}]\times [\varepsilon _{2}, \frac{1}{\varepsilon _{2}}]\times [\varepsilon _{2}, \frac{1}{\varepsilon _{2}}]\). Moreover, there exists a positive constant \(M_{3}=\min \{\sigma _{1}^{2}P^{2},\sigma _{2}^{2}(x,\rho _{1})A^{2},\sigma _{3}^{2}(y,\rho _{2})Z^{2}\}\), such that
for all \((P, A, Z)\in U_{1}\), \(\zeta =(\zeta _{1},\zeta _{2},\zeta _{3})\in R^{3}\). Then, based on Lemma 2, model (2) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution \(\pi (.)\). Moreover, according to the ergodic property, the solution of model (2) \(\varPhi (t)=(P(t),A(t),Z(t))\) satisfying
We then show that \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln A(t)}{t}=0\), from (A.47), (B.60) and the strong law of large numbers for martingales, the limits of \(\frac{1}{t}\ln A(t)\) exist. If \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln A(t)}{t}\ne 0\), then together with Lemma 1, \(\limsup _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln A(t)}{t}<0\), consequently, \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }A(t)=0\), which contradicts with (B.60). Similarly, we have \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln Z(t)}{t}=0\). Then, according to the It\(\hat{\mathrm {o}}\) formula we have
By using and the strong law of large numbers for martingales, \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{M_{i}(t)}{t}=\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{N_{j}(t)}{t}=0\), \(i=2,3\), \(j=1,2,3\), then obviously (B.61) has a unique positive solution, provided that \(\lambda (x,y)>0\), and
This completes the proof of Theorem 3. \(\square \)
Appendix C: Proofs of Theorems 5 and 6
1.1 Proof of Theorem 5
Our main aim in this part is to derive the conditions under which \(x^{*}\) is evolutionary stable and convergence stable. To achieve that, we first need the following results. From the first equation of (B.61), when \(y=h\) is a constant we have
Taking the partial derivative of both sides of (C.63) with respect to x leads to
Combining with Eq. (25), we have
We know that \(x^{*}\) is an ESS, i.e., the fitness will achieve its maximum at \(x^{*}\), provided that
Taking the second partial derivative of both sides of (C.63) with respect to x leads to
Substituting (C.65) into (C.67), we have
where
Obviously, if \(\langle Z(x^{*},h)\rangle '(2h_{1}(x^{*})-h_{2}(x^{*}))<0\) holds, then \(x^{*}\) is an ESS. Once \(x^{*}\) is an ESS, there is no possibility of further evolution changes by small mutation. Moreover, the singular strategy \(x^{*}\) is convergence stable, provided that
We then determine the sign of \(\langle Z(x^{*},h)\rangle '\). From the third equation of (B.61) and the second equation of (B.62),
then taking the partial derivative of both sides with respect to x, we have
where \(g(x)=\frac{s_{1}(x)}{c(x,h)}Q(x).\) Since \(\left( \frac{s_{1}(x)}{c(x,h)}\right) '=\frac{2k_{1}x\exp (v(x-\theta h)^{2})}{c_\mathrm{m}}(vx^{2}-v\theta h x+1)> 0\) and \(Q'(x)>0\), then \(g'(x)>0\). This together with (C.65) we can conclude that \(\langle Z(x^{*},h)\rangle '<0\) and \(\langle P(x^{*},h)\rangle '<0\). Then, from (C.68) and (C.70) we know that when \(h_{1}(x^{*})<h_{2}(x^{*})\), \(x^{*}\) is a repellor. When \(h_{1}(x^{*})>h_{2}(x^{*})\), \(x^{*}\) is convergence stable; meanwhile, it is an ESS as long as \(2h_{1}(x^{*})>h_{2}(x^{*})\) or an evolutionary branching point if \(2h_{1}(x^{*})<h_{2}(x^{*})\). Theorem 5 is thus proved.
We then give some analysis about Table 2. Combining with Eqs. (C.63), (25) and (B.60) leads to
and
which implies that
It easy to see that \(h_{1}(x^{*})\ne 0\), \(x^{*}\in \left( 0,\ \min \left\{ \theta h, \sqrt{\frac{a_{3}}{a_{1}}}\right\} \right) \) or \(x^{*}\in \left( \theta h,\ \infty \right) \).
From (C.69), the sign of \(h_{1}(x^{*})\) is only determined by the sign of \(\frac{c'(x^{*},h)}{c(x^{*},h)}-\frac{\mu '(x^{*})}{\mu (x^{*})}\). When \(\frac{c'(x^{*},h)}{c(x^{*},h)}>\frac{\mu '(x^{*})}{\mu (x^{*})}>0\), \(h_{1}(x^{*})>0\), satisfying \(2h_{1}(x^{*})>h_{1}(x^{*})\). Then once \(x^{*}\) is convergence stable, i.e., \(h_{1}(x^{*})>h_{2}(x^{*})\), the inequality \(2h_{1}(x^{*})>h_{2}(x^{*})\) is also holds, i.e., \(x^{*}\) is also an ESS. At this situation, \(x^{*}\) is either a CSS or a repellor, and \(x^{*}\in (0, \min \{\theta h, \sqrt{a_{3}/a_{1}} \})\). When \(\frac{\mu '(x^{*})}{\mu (x^{*})}>\frac{c'(x^{*},h)}{c(x^{*},h)}\), \(h_{1}(x^{*})<0\), and when \(h_{2}(x^{*})\ge 0\), \(h_{1}(x^{*})< h_{2}(x^{*})\) always holds, thus \(x^{*}\) is a repellor. When \(h_{2}(x^{*})<0\), it can be divided into three scenarios: (1) \(h_{1}(x^{*})< h_{2}(x^{*})<0\), at this situation, \(x^{*}\) is a repellor; (2) \(h_{2}(x^{*})< 2h_{1}(x^{*})<0\), at this point, \(x^{*}\) is a CSS; (3) \(h_{1}(x^{*})> h_{2}(x^{*})>2h_{1}(x^{*})\), then \(x^{*}\) is an evolutionary branching point, which implies the algal population will split up into two species with different cell size. This confirms Table 2.
1.2 Proof of Theorem 6
In this part, we mainly investigate how environmental fluctuation and phosphorus content affect the trend of algal evolution in the presence of zooplankton. According to (25),
From (21),
and
Moreover, from the first equation of (B.61),
then
It then follows from (C.72), when \(\frac{\mu '(x^{*})}{\mu (x^{*})} >\frac{c'(x^{*},h)}{c(x^{*},h)}\),
Otherwise, \(\frac{c'(x^{*},h)}{c(x^{*},h)}>\frac{\mu '(x^{*})}{\mu (x^{*})}>0\), since \(v< \frac{4}{\theta ^{2}h^{2}}\), then
Since our concern is the CSS or evolutionary branching point, then \(-\frac{\partial D_{1}(x^{*})}{\partial x^{*}}>0.\) By the implicit function theorem, we have
Moreover, from Eq. (21), we have \(\frac{\partial \langle P(x,h)\rangle }{\partial P_\mathrm{in}}=\frac{c(x,h)}{\alpha \mu (x)}\frac{\partial \langle Z(x,h)\rangle }{\partial P_\mathrm{in}}\) and \(\frac{\partial \langle Z(x,h)\rangle }{\partial P_\mathrm{in}}=\frac{e}{s_{2}(h)q(h)+e c(x,h)/\alpha \mu (x)}>0\). Then,
Then if \(h_{1}(x^{*})<0\),
otherwise \(h_{1}(x^{*})>0,\) and \(\frac{\mathrm {d}x^{*}}{\mathrm {d}P_\mathrm{in}}<0\). This completes the proof.
Appendix D: Proofs of Theorems 7 and 8
1.1 Proof of Theorem 7
Proof
Since the coefficients of model (26) are locally Lipschitz in \(R_{+}^{4}\), then there exists a unique local solution \((P(t),A_{1}(t),A_{2}(t),Z(t))\) of model (26) on the interval \((0,\tau _{e})\), where \(\tau _{e}\) denotes the explosion time. In order to prove \(\tau _{e}=\infty \), we only need to construct a nonnegative \({\mathcal {C}}^{2}\)-function \(V_{3}\) satisfying \({\mathcal {L}}V_{3}\le M_{3}\), where \(M_{3}\) is a positive constant (Mao et al. 2002). Define the nonnegativity function \(V_{3}: R_{+}^{4}\rightarrow R_{+}\) by
where \(V_{31}=P+\sum _{i=1}^{2}Q(x_{i})A_{i}+qZ\), \(V_{32}=m_{7}\ln P+\sum _{i=1}^{2}\ln A_{i}+\ln Z\), \(V_{3}^{*}\) is the minimum value point of \(V_{3}(P,A_{1},A_{2},Z)\) and \(m_{6}=\frac{2\check{c}}{s_{2}q}\), \(m_{7}=\frac{\delta {\hat{c}} }{\alpha \check{u} \check{Q}}.\) Then by using the It\(\hat{\mathrm {o}}\) formula, we have
Arguing similarly as in Mao et al. (2002), we can obtain the first part of Theorem 7. Moreover, by using the It\(\hat{\mathrm {o}}\) formula to model (26) again, we have
where \(h_{2}=\min \{e,{\hat{s}}_{1},s_{2}(h)\}\). Considering the following model
Then, the solution of Eq. (D.73) has the following form
where
is a local martingale satisfying \(M(0)=0\), a.s. The stochastic comparison theorem implies \(V_{31}(t)\le Y(t)\), a.s.
Define \(Y(t)=Y(0)+ B(t)-U(t) + M(t),\) where \(B(t) = \frac{eP_\mathrm{in}}{h_{2}} [1-\exp (-h_{2}t)],\ U(t) = Y(0)[1- \exp (-h_{2}t)],\ B(0)=U(0)=0\). Obviously, B(t) and U(t) are continuous adapted increasing processes. With the aid of the nonnegative semimartingale convergence theorem (Mao 2006), we have \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty } Y(t) < \infty \), a.s. Thus, \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty } V_{31}(t) < \infty \), a.s. This completes the proof. \(\square \)
1.2 Proof of Theorem 8
Let
then model (26) becomes a three-dimensional model. We first prove that when \({\hat{\lambda }}(x_{i},h)>0\), \(i=1,2\), the new three-dimensional model admits a unique stationary distribution. The proof is similar to the proof of Theorem 3 in “Appendix B”. Define a nonnegative \({\mathcal {C}}^{2}-\)Lyapunov function
\(V_{4}^{*}\) is the minimum value of \(V_{4}(P,{\tilde{A}},Z)\) and
where \(m_{8}=(m_{10}\check{c}(x_{i},h)+s_{2}(h)q(h))/(s_{2}(h)+d_{2})\), \(m_{9}=\frac{\check{s}_{1}\check{Q}}{\delta {\hat{c}}(x_{i},h)},\) \(m_{10}=\frac{e}{ \alpha {\hat{\mu }} },\) \(0<\theta _{2}<1\) is a constant which is small enough such that
and the positive constant \(M_{3}\) satisfying
where \(f_{2}=-h_{3}(x_{1}, x_{2})(P+{\tilde{A}}+q(h)Z\big )^{\theta _{1}+2}+eP_\mathrm{in}\big (P+{\tilde{A}}+q(h)Z\big )^{\theta _{1}+1}+\alpha {\check{\mu }} {\tilde{A}}+e+\frac{\sigma _{1}^{2}}{2}\). By using the It\(\hat{\mathrm {o}}\) formula, we can compute that
Then following the same logic as the proof in “Appendix B”, we can obtain that, when \({\hat{\lambda }}(x_{i},h)>0\), \(i=1,2\), the new three-dimensional model has a unique stationary distribution \(\nu (.)\) and it is ergodic. According to the ergodic property, the solution of the new three-dimensional model \(\varPsi (t)=(P(t),{\tilde{A}}(t),Z(t))\) satisfying
This suggests that the new three-dimensional model could achieve a relative stable state, i.e., the long-time mean persistent level of the concentration of dissolved inorganic phosphorus, the amount of organophosphorus in the entire algal species and the zooplankton carbon density remain unchanged a.s., no matter how many algal species exists in the model. If one of the algal species goes to extinction, then the dimorphic model (26) will ultimately degenerate to the original monomorphic model (20), and the following equations hold,
We next prove that when \(\min \{x_1,x_2\}<x<\max \{x_1,x_2\}\) holds, model (26) is stable in mean. To achieve that, we only need to prove \(\langle A_{1}(x_1,x_2)\rangle >0\) and \(\langle A_{2}(x_1,x_2)\rangle >0\). It is easy to compute that
Integrating the above equation from 0 to t and dividing by t on both sides lead to
where \(\psi _{2}(t)=R(t)-R(0)-H(t)\), \(H(t)=\sigma _{1}\int _{0}^{t}N(s)\mathrm {d}B_{1}(s)+\sum _{i=1}^{2}\sigma _{2}(x_{i},\rho )Q(x_{i})\int _{0}^{t}P_{i}(s) \mathrm {d}B_{1+i}(s)+\sigma _{3}(h,\rho _{2})q(h)\int _{0}^{t}Z(s)\mathrm {d}B_{4}(s)\), \(R(t)=P(t)+\sum _{i=1}^{2}Q(x_{i})A_{i}(t)+q(h)Z(t)\). According to Theorem 1 and the strong law of large numbers for local martingales (Mao 2006):
then together with (D.75), (B.62) and the third equation of (B.61), we have
Moreover, from (D.75) and (B.62),
Noticing the fact that, for any \(f(t),g(t)<\infty \),
and if \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }[f(t)+g(t)]\) exists, \(\liminf _{t\rightarrow \infty }f(t)+\limsup _{t\rightarrow \infty }g(t)=\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }[f(t)+g(t)]\). Then, together with (D.78) and (D.77),
and
When \(\min \{x_1,x_2\}<x<\max \{x_1,x_2\}\), by solving (D.79) and (D.80) we can obtain that:
According to the description of x-functions in Table 1, \(s'(x)>0\), then \(\min \{s(x_1),s(x_2)\}<s(x)<\max \{s(x_1),s(x_2)\}\). Consequently, we can conclude that \(\langle A_{1}(x_1,x_2)\rangle >0\) and \(\langle A_{2}(x_1,x_2)\rangle >0\).
Our next step is to explicitly express the persistence level of model (26) in terms of \(x_1\) and \(x_2\) only. Following similar methods as in the derivation of (B.62), the solution of model (26) satisfying \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln A_{i}(t)}{t}=0\), \(\lim _{t\rightarrow \infty }\frac{\ln Z(t)}{t}=0\), \(i=1,2\). Together with (D.77) leads to:
Through simple calculation, (D.81) has a unique positive solution as follows:
where \(f_{3}=eP_\mathrm{in}-e\langle P(x_{1},x_{2})\rangle -s_{2}(h)q(h)\langle Z(x_{1},x_{2})\rangle \). The proof is completed.
Remark 10
Note that when zooplankton species also evolves, Theorem 7 and 8 also hold, and the long-time mean persistent level becomes:
where \(f_{4}=eP_\mathrm{in}-e\langle P(x_{1},x_{2},y)\rangle -s_{2}(y)q(y)\langle Z(x_{1},x_{2},y)\rangle \).
Appendix E: Proof of Theorem 9
In this part, we mainly investigate the convergence stability and the evolutionary stability of \((x_{1}^{*}, x_{2}^{*})\). Taking the partial derivatives of the first and second equations of (D.81), with respect to \(x_{1}\), \(x_{2}\), respectively, leads to
Together with (30) leads to
Also from the first and second equations of (D.81), we can compute that
Combining Eq. (E.85) with (E.84) leads to,
where \(i,j=1,2\) and \(i\ne j\). Moreover, from the expression of \(\langle Z(x_{1},x_{2})\rangle \) in (D.82), we know that
otherwise, it will contradict with (D.74). Then, from (E.86), we have
Let
Obviously, \(h_{1i}(x_{1}, x_{2})=0\), \(i=1,2\). The evolutionary singular dimorphism \((x_{1}^{*}, x_{2}^{*})\) is evolutionary stable if for both \(i\in \{1,2\}\), the following inequality holds,
Furthermore, the local convergence stability at the evolutionary singular dimorphism \((x_{1}^{*}, x_{2}^{*})\) is determined by the Jacobian matrix of evolutionary dynamics (29) at this point. The Jacobian matrix \({\mathcal {J}}\) of (29) at \((x_{1}^{*}, x_{2}^{*})\) is given by:
then if the Jacobian matrix satisfies \(\mathrm {det}({\mathcal {J}}) > 0\) and \(\mathrm {tr}({\mathcal {J}}) < 0\), i.e., \(h_{2i}(x_{1}^{*}, x_{2}^{*})>0\) hold for both \(i\in \{1,2\}\), the evolutionary singular dimorphism is locally convergence stable. From the above analysis, it is obvious that once the evolutionary singular dimorphism \((x_{1}^{*}, x_{2}^{*})\) is convergence stable, it must also be evolutionary stable, i.e., it is a CSS. Otherwise, i.e., there at least exists one \(i\in \{1,2\}\), such that \(h_{2i}(x_{1}^{*}, x_{2}^{*})<0\), the evolutionary singular dimorphism is a repellor. This completes the proof.
Appendix F: Proof of Remark 6
Proof
When \(s_{2}(y)=\frac{1}{\beta _{3}}\exp (k_{2}y) \), in order to prove \(y^{*}\) is always an ESS, we only need to prove that inequality (38) is always holds. Combing the second equation of (35) and the expression of \(\langle A(x,y)\rangle \) in (9) leads to
and
where
By calculation,
If \(0<2v(x^{*}-\theta y^{*})^{2}\le 1\), \(c''_{y}(x^{*},y^{*})\le 0\), then according to (38) and (F.95), we have,
We then prove if \(2v(x^{*}-\theta y^{*})^{2}> 1\), \(\frac{\partial ^2 F_{5}(x,y,y_\mathrm{mut})}{\partial y_\mathrm{mut}^2}\bigg |_{\begin{array}{c} x=x^{*} \end{array}}<0\) also holds.
When \(2v(x^{*}-\theta y^{*})^{2}> 1\), substituting (F.91)-(F.95) into (38) leads to
We then divide our proof into two cases.
(1). \(x^*>\theta y^*\), then \(\frac{k_{2}}{\beta _3}\exp (k_{2}y^{*})-{\tilde{m}}k_{7}\exp (-2k_{7}y^{*})>0\) and from (F.91),
Substitute (F.97) into (F.96), we have
(2). \(x^*<\theta y^*\), then \(\frac{k_{2}}{\beta _3}\exp (k_{2}y^{*})-{\tilde{m}}k_{7}\exp (-k_{7}y^{*})<0\) and from (F.91),
then
Then, \(\frac{\partial ^2 F_{5}(x,y,y_\mathrm{mut})}{\partial y_\mathrm{mut}^2}\bigg |_{\begin{array}{c} x=x^{*}\\ y_\mathrm{mut}=y=y^{*} \end{array}}<0\) always holds. The proof is thus completed. \(\square \)
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Zhao, S., Yuan, S. & Wang, H. Adaptive Dynamics of a Stoichiometric Phosphorus–Algae–Zooplankton Model with Environmental Fluctuations. J Nonlinear Sci 32, 36 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-022-09794-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-022-09794-w
Keywords
- Stochastic EPAZ model
- Adaptive dynamics
- Evolutionary branching
- Continuously stable strategy
- Evolutionary cycling