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Insight of the fuzzy grey autoregressive model

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Abstract

In our previous research, we proposed a fuzzy grey regression model for solving limited time series data. The present paper follows the previous research and proposes a fuzzy grey autoregressive model for considering that the current value is correlated with previous values. The proposed model combines the advantages of the grey system model, the fuzzy regression model and the autoregressive model. Two illustrated examples are provided in which the amount of internet subscribers in Taiwan and the global demand of LCD TVs are forecasted. The results of these practical applications show that the proposed model can be used to obtain smaller forecasting errors of MAPE and RMSE, and that it makes good forecasts for the next demand period of internet subscribers and LCD TV. Furthermore, this model makes it possible for decision makers to forecast the best and the worst estimates based on fewer observations.

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Acknowledgment

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Science Council of Taiwan, People’s Republic of China, under project number NSC 94-2213-E-364-001.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Management Sciences and Decision Making, Tamkang University, No. 151 Ying-chuan Road, Tamsui 25137, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC

    Ruey-Chyn Tsaur

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  1. Ruey-Chyn Tsaur
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Correspondence to Ruey-Chyn Tsaur.

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Tsaur, RC. Insight of the fuzzy grey autoregressive model. Soft Comput 13, 919–931 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-008-0368-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-008-0368-y

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