Abstract
This paper introduces the concept and practice of Neural Network architectures for wind speed prediction in wind farms. The wind speed prediction method has been analyzed by using back propagation network and radial basis function network. Artificial neural network is used to develop suitable architecture for predicting wind speed in wind farms. The key of wind speed prediction is rational selection of forecasting model and effective optimization of model performance. To verify the effectiveness of neural network architecture, simulations were conducted on real time wind data with different heights of wind mill. Due to fluctuation and nonlinearity of wind speed, accurate wind speed prediction plays a major role in the operational control of wind farms. The key advantages of Radial Basis Function Network include higher accuracy, reduction of training time and minimal error. The experimental results show that compared to existing approaches, proposed radial basis function network performs better in terms of minimization of errors.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akinci TC (2011) Short term wind speed forecasting with ANN in Batman, Turkey. Electron Electr Eng 1(107):41–45
Arsie I, Marano V, Rizzo G, Savino G, Moran M (2006) Energy and economic evaluation of a hybrid CAES/ wind power plant with neural network-based wind speed forecasting. In: Proceedings of ECOS, 19th international conference on efficiency, cost, optimization, simulation and enviromental impact of energy system, Aghia
Bhaskar M, Jain A, Venkata Srinath N (2010) Wind speed prediction: present status. International conference on power system technology, pp 1–6. doi:10.1109/POWERCON.2010.5666623
Emst B, Oak leaf B, Ahlstrom ML (2007) Predicting the wind. IEEE Power Energy Mag 5, 6:78–89
Fonte PM, Silva GX, Quadrado JC (2005) Wind speed prediction using artificial neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 6th WSEAS international conference on neural networks, Lisbon, pp 134–139
Gnana Sheela K (2011) Computing models for wind speed prediction in renewable energy systems. Int J Comput Appl 3:108–111
Guo Z, Zhao W, Lu H, Jianzhou W (2012) Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model. Renewable Energy 37(1):241–249. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2011.06.023
Han X, Yang X, Liu J (2010) Short-time wind speed prediction for wind farm based on improved neural network. 8th world congress on intelligent control and automation, China, pp 5891–5894
Haque AU, Mandal P, Kaye ME, Meng J, Chang L, Senjyu T (2012) A new strategy for predicting short-term wind speed using soft computing models. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 16(6):4563–4573
Hayashi M, Kermanshahi B (2001) Application of artificial neural network for wind speed prediction and determination of wind power generation output. In: Proceedings of ICEE
Hong Y-Y, Wu C-P (2010) Hour-ahead wind power and speed forecasting using market basket analysis and radial basis function network. International conference on power system technology, Hangzhou, pp 1–6
Hu C, Zhao F (2010) Improved methods of BP neural network algorithm and its limitation. International forum on information technology and applications, Kunming
Iqdour R, Zeroual A (2006) The MLP neural networks for predicting wind speed. 2nd international symposium on communications, control and signal processing, Marrakech
Jayaraj K, Padmakumari K, Sreevalsan E, Arun P (2004) Wind speed and power prediction using artificial neural networks. European wind energy conference, London
Liang L, Shao F (2010) The study on short-time wind speed prediction based on time series neural network algorithm. Asia Pacific power and energy engineering conference, China, pp 1–5
Liera P, Fernandez-Baizan MC, Feitoc JL, Gonzalez del Valle V (2006) Local short-term prediction of wind speed: a neural network analysis, pp 124–129
Mohandas MA, Rehman S, Halawani TO (1998) A neural network approach for wind speed prediction. Renewable Energy 13(3):345–354
More A, Deo MC (1995) Forecasting wind with neural networks. Marstruct
Razavi S, Tolson BA (2011) A new formulation for feedforward neural networks. IEEE Trans Neural Netw 22(10):1588–1598
Silva GX, Fonte PM, Quadrado JC (2006) Radial basis function networks for wind speed prediction. In: Proceedings of the 5th WSEAS international conference on artificial intelligence, knowledge engineering, and data bases, Madrid, pp 286–290
Sivanandan SN, Deepa SN (2007) Principles of soft computing, 2nd edn. Wiley, India
Sreelakshmi K, Ramakanthkumar P (2008) Neural networks for short term wind speed prediction. World Acad Sci Eng Technol 18:721–725
Wu Y-K, Hong J-S (2007) A literature review of wind forecasting in the world. In: Proceeding of IEEE power technology conference, Lausanne, pp 504–509
Wu J, Liu X, Qian J (2010) Wind speed and power forecasting based on RBF neural network. International conference on computer application and system modeling, vol 5, Taiyuan, pp 298–301
Acknowledgments
The authors are thankful to Suzlon Energy Ltd. for providing real time data of wind farm to carry out the research in this area.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by G. Acampora.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gnana Sheela, K., Deepa, S.N. Performance analysis of modeling framework for prediction in wind farms employing artificial neural networks. Soft Comput 18, 607–615 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-013-1084-9
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-013-1084-9