Abstract
Extreme losses of portfolios with heavy-tailed components are studied in the framework of multivariate regular variation. Asymptotic distributions of extreme portfolio losses are characterized by a functional γ ξ =γ ξ (α,Ψ) of the tail index α, the spectral measure Ψ, and the vector ξ of portfolio weights. Existence, uniqueness, and location of the optimal portfolio are analysed and applied to the minimization of risk measures. It is shown that diversification effects are positive for α>1 and negative for α<1. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality are established for a semiparametric estimator of the mapping ξ ↦ γ ξ . Strong consistency is also established for the estimated optimal portfolio.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Acerbi, C.: Spectral measures of risk: a coherent representation of subjective risk aversion. J. Bank. Finance 26, 1505–1518 (2002)
Barbe, P., Fougères, A.-L., Genest, C.: On the tail behaviour of sums of dependent risks. ASTIN Bull. 36, 361–373 (2006)
Basrak, B., Davis, R.A., Mikosch, T.: A characterization of multivariate regular variation. Ann. Appl. Probab. 12, 908–920 (2002)
Bingham, N.H., Goldie, C.M., Teugels, J.L.: Regular Variation. Encyclopedia of Mathematics and Its Applications, vol. 27. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1987)
Böcker, K., Klüppelberg, C.: Modelling and measuring multivariate operational risk with Lévy copulas. J. Oper. Risk 3(2), 3–27 (2008)
Boman, J., Lindskog, F.: Support theorems for the Radon transform and Cramér–Wold theorems. J. Theor. Probab. 22, 683–710 (2009)
Daníelsson, J., Jorgensen, B.N., Sarma, M., de Vries, C.G.: Sub-additivity re-examined: the case for value-at-risk. EURANDOM Reports (2005). http://www.eurandom.nl/reports/2005/006-report.pdf
Davis, R., Resnick, S.: Tail estimates motivated by extreme value theory. Ann. Stat. 12, 1467–1487 (1984)
de Haan, L., Ferreira, A.: Extreme Value Theory. Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering. Springer, New York (2006)
de Haan, L., Resnick, S.I.: Limit theory for multivariate sample extremes. Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheor. Verw. Geb. 40, 317–337 (1977)
de Haan, L., Resnick, S.I.: Estimating the limit distribution of multivariate extremes. Commun. Stat. Stoch. Mod. 9, 275–309 (1993)
de Haan, L., Sinha, A.K.: Estimating the probability of a rare event. Ann. Stat. 27, 732–759 (1999)
Dekkers, A.L.M., Einmahl, J.H.J., de Haan, L.: A moment estimator for the index of an extreme-value distribution. Ann. Stat. 17, 1833–1855 (1989)
Drees, H.: Refined Pickands estimators of the extreme value index. Ann. Stat. 23, 2059–2080 (1995)
Drees, H., Ferreira, A., de Haan, L.: On maximum likelihood estimation of the extreme value index. Ann. Appl. Probab. 14, 1179–1201 (2004)
Einmahl, J.H.J., de Haan, L., Huang, X.: Estimating a multidimensional extreme-value distribution. J. Multivar. Anal. 47, 35–47 (1993)
Einmahl, J.H.J., de Haan, L., Sinha, A.K.: Estimating the spectral measure of an extreme value distribution. Stoch. Process. Appl. 70, 143–171 (1997)
Einmahl, J.H.J., de Haan, L., Piterbarg, V.I.: Nonparametric estimation of the spectral measure of an extreme value distribution. Ann. Stat. 29, 1401–1423 (2001)
Embrechts, P., Lambrigger, D., Wüthrich, M.V.: Multivariate extremes and the aggregation of dependent risks: examples and counter-examples. Extremes 12, 107–127 (2009)
Embrechts, P., Nešlehová, J., Wüthrich, M.V.: Additivity properties for Value-at-Risk under Archimedean dependence and heavy-tailedness. Insur. Math. Econ. 44, 164–169 (2009)
Falk, M., Hüsler, J., Reiss, R.-D.: Laws of Small Numbers: Extremes and Rare Events. DMV Seminar, vol. 23. Birkhäuser, Basel (1994)
Hajós, G., Rényi, A.: Elementary proofs of some basic facts concerning order statistics. Acta Math. Acad. Sci. Hungar. 5, 1–6 (1954)
Hauksson, H.A., Dacorogna, M.M., Domenig, T., Müller, U.A., Samorodnitsky, G.: Multivariate extremes, aggregation and risk estimation. SSRN eLibrary (2000). http://ssrn.com/paper=254392
Hill, B.M.: A simple general approach to inference about the tail of a distribution. Ann. Stat. 3, 1163–1174 (1975)
Hult, H., Lindskog, F.: Regular variation for measures on metric spaces. Publ. Inst. Math. (Beograd) (N.S.) 80(94), 121–140 (2006)
Joe, H.: Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts. Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, vol. 73. Chapman & Hall, London (1997)
Klüppelberg, C., Resnick, S.I.: The Pareto copula, aggregation of risks, and the emperor’s socks. J. Appl. Probab. 45, 67–84 (2008)
Malevergne, Y., Sornette, D.: Extreme Financial Risks. Springer, Berlin (2006)
McNeil, A.J., Frey, R., Embrechts, P.: Quantitative Risk Management. Princeton Series in Finance. Princeton University Press, Princeton (2005)
Moscadelli, M.: The modelling of operational risk: Experience with the analysis of the data collected by the Basel Committee. SSRN eLibrary (2004). http://ssrn.com/paper=557214
Nešlehová, J., Embrechts, P., Chavez-Demoulin, V.: Infinite-mean models and the LDA for operational risk. J. Oper. Risk 1(1), 3–25 (2006)
Pickands III, J.: Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. Ann. Stat. 3, 119–131 (1975)
Pickands III, J.: Multivariate extreme value distributions. In: Proceedings of the 43rd session of the International Statistical Institute, Book 2, Buenos Aires, 1981, vol. 49, pp. 859–878, 894–902. ISI, 1981. With a discussion
Resnick, S.I.: Extreme Values, Regular Variation, and Point Processes. Applied Probability. A Series of the Applied Probability Trust, vol. 4. Springer, New York (1987)
Resnick, S.: The extremal dependence measure and asymptotic independence. Stoch. Mod. 20, 205–227 (2004)
Resnick, S.I.: Heavy-Tail Phenomena. Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering. Springer, New York (2007)
Schmidt, R., Stadtmüller, U.: Non-parametric estimation of tail dependence. Scand. J. Stat. 33, 307–335 (2006)
Smith, R.L.: Estimating tails of probability distributions. Ann. Stat. 15, 1174–1207 (1987)
van der Vaart, A.W., Wellner, J.A.: Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York (1996). Corrected 2nd printing 2000
Wüthrich, M.V.: Asymptotic Value-at-Risk estimates for sums of dependent random variables. Astin Bull. 33, 75–92 (2003)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mainik, G., Rüschendorf, L. On optimal portfolio diversification with respect to extreme risks. Finance Stoch 14, 593–623 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-010-0122-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-010-0122-z