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Predicting movie Box-office revenues by exploiting large-scale social media content

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Abstract

Predicting the box-office revenue of a movie before its theatrical release is an important but challenging problem that requires a high level of Artificial Intelligence. Nowadays, social media has shown its predictive power in various domains, which motivates us to exploit social media content to predict box-office revenues. In this study, we employ both linear and non-linear regression models, which are based on the crowd wisdom of social media, especially the posts of users, to predict movie box-office revenues. More specifically, the attention and popularity of the movie, purchase intention of users, and comments of users are automatically mined from social media data. In our model, the use of Linear Regression and Support Vector Regression in predicting the box-office revenue of a movie before its theatrical release is explored. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a cross-validation experiment is conducted. The experimental results show that large-scale social media content is correlated with movie box-office revenues and that the purchase intention of users can lead to more accurate movie box-office revenue predictions. Both the linear and non-linear prediction models have the advantage of predicting movie grosses in our experiments.

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Notes

  1. http://www.weibo.com/

  2. http://www.mtime.com/

  3. http://www.imdb.com/

  4. http://movie.douban.com/

  5. http://www.wangpiao.com/

  6. The baidu trends of the director

  7. The baidu trends of the main actors

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Acknowledgment

Ting Liu: model building, experiment design, paper writing

Xiao Ding: model building, experiment design, paper writing

Yiheng Chen: model building, experiment design

Haochen Chen: data collection, experiment design

Maosheng Guo: data collection

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Center for Social Computing and Information Retrieval, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China

    Ting Liu, Xiao Ding, Yiheng Chen, Haochen Chen & Maosheng Guo

  2. Harbin Nangang district Jiaohua street No. 29 6th floor, Harbin, 151000, China

    Xiao Ding

Authors
  1. Ting Liu
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  2. Xiao Ding
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  3. Yiheng Chen
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  4. Haochen Chen
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  5. Maosheng Guo
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Correspondence to Xiao Ding.

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Liu, T., Ding, X., Chen, Y. et al. Predicting movie Box-office revenues by exploiting large-scale social media content. Multimed Tools Appl 75, 1509–1528 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-014-2270-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-014-2270-1

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