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Analysis of the impact of research output on economic growth with using a multivariate random effects model

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the simultaneous effect of research outputs such as the number of articles indexed in Scopus on economic indicators such as inflation rate, unemployment rate and GDP of selected countries in the period of 2016 and 2020. Many articles have been studied in this regard, but none of them have focused on the simultaneous examination of research achievements on economic indicators. In some articles, research outputs on each of the economic growth indicators have been examined separately. Furthermore, separate analysis give biased estimates for the parameters and misleading inference. Consequently, we need to consider a method in which these variables can be modelled jointly. For this study, a random sample of 39 countries has been collected from the World Bank data to extract the economic index and Scopus data to extract the number of articles. In this paper, a joint model with random effects for longitudinal economic growth indicators is proposed. For these data, the simultaneous effects of some covariate for example the number of articles indexed in Scopus on the economic growth indicators as three mixed correlated responses are explored. There are main findings. Firstly, in the simultaneous examination of the effect of research outputs on economic indicators, some latent influencing factors related to each country under the title of random effects that have significant on economic indicators. Secondly, research achievements on economic indicators are significant at the same time. This significance is due to the simultaneous examination of economic indicators and appropriate statistical models are obtained with the least error compared to separate analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

    Arman Pourghaz, Ehsan Bahrami Samani & Babak Shokri

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  1. Arman Pourghaz
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  2. Ehsan Bahrami Samani
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Correspondence to Ehsan Bahrami Samani.

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Pourghaz, A., Samani, E.B. & Shokri, B. Analysis of the impact of research output on economic growth with using a multivariate random effects model. Scientometrics 128, 2259–2282 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-023-04638-0

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