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Modeling environmental policies in probabilistic generation system planning reserve margin assessment

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Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)’s efforts to incorporate environmental policies regarding electric power industry into its probabilistic planning reserve margin studies. Currently, load serving entities such as Investor Own Utilities (IOUs) in the State of California, with its retail load under the jurisdiction of the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC), are required to procure reserve level at 15–17%. This requirement is deterministic in nature and does not include the potential impact of additional reserve requirement due to environmental policies. The CAISO, which controls 80% of the state’s electrical load, is investigating the use of probabilistic planning for planning reserve margin (PRM) of the load serving entities under its operational control. The paper provides an overview of CAISO study results for PRM under various load and resource scenarios, increase in generators’ forced outage rate, and impacts due to California’s environmental policies regarding electric supply sector, such as its once-through cooling (OTC) draft policy and Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) targets.

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Notes

  1. With the RPS target, the load entities would need to meet at a minimum 20% of its retail load electric consumptions with renewable energy for periods before 2020. This target is raised to 33% by 2020 time frame.

  2. The SWRCB’s proposed policy would require the existing once-through cooling power plants to reduce intake flow rate to a level commensurate with that which can be attained by a closed-cycle wet cooling system. The ISO studied a conservative scenario assumption in which the non-nuclear thermal plants are not available in the system due to the need for compliance. This assumption may be considered an extreme scenario, which may not occur, and would serve as a book-end estimate for the worst impact to the State’s generation resources.

  3. “Perfect capacity” is defined as capacity without planned or forced outages.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Regional Transmission South, California Independent System Operator (CAISO), Folsom, CA, USA

    David Le & Ali A. Chowdhury

Authors
  1. David Le
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  2. Ali A. Chowdhury
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Correspondence to David Le.

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Disclaimer: This paper does not in any form and manner reflect the position of the California ISO.

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Le, D., Chowdhury, A.A. Modeling environmental policies in probabilistic generation system planning reserve margin assessment. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag 1, 96–104 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-010-0018-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-010-0018-5

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