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ST-AGP: Spatio-Temporal aggregator predictor model for multi-step taxi-demand prediction in cities

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Abstract

Taxi demand prediction in a city is a highly demanded smart city research application for better traffic strategies formulation. It is essential for the interest of the commuters and the taxi companies both to have an accurate measure of taxi demands at different regions of a city and at varying time intervals. This reduces the cost of resources, efforts and meets the customers’ satisfaction at its best. Modern predictive models have shown the potency of Deep Neural Networks (DNN) in this domain over any traditional, statistical, or Tensor-Based predictive models in terms of accuracy. The recent DNN models using leading technologies like Convolution Neural Networks (CNN), Graph Convolution Networks (GCN), ConvLSTM, etc. are not able to efficiently capture the existing spatio-temporal characteristics in taxi demand time-series. The feature aggregation techniques in these models lack channeling and uniqueness causing less distinctive but overlapping feature space which results in a compromised prediction performance having high error propagation possibility. The present work introduces Spatio-Temporal Aggregator Predictor (ST-AGP), a DNN model which aggregates spatio-temporal features into (1) non-redundant and (2) highly distinctive feature space and in turn helps (3) reduce noise propagation for a high performing multi-step predictive model. The proposed model integrates the effective feature engineering techniques of machine learning approach with the non-linear capability of a DNN model. Consequently, the proposed model is able to use only the informative features responsible for the objective task with reduce noise propagation. Unlike, existing DNN models, ST-AGP is able to induce these qualities of feature aggregation without the use of Multi-Task Learning (MTL) approach or any additional supervised attention that existing models need for their notable performance. A considerable high-performance gain of 25 − 37% on two real-world city taxi datasets by ST-AGP over the state-of-art models on standard benchmark metrics establishes the efficacy of the proposed model over the existing ones.

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Notes

  1. A common operation over each element of a sequence is presented using an arrow with common operands and operation denoted above and below arrow sign.

  2. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/tlc/about/tlc-trip-record-data.page

  3. Kaggle “Taxi Fare Challenge”, 2017

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Acknowledgements

This work is funded by Scheme for Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration (SPARC) under Ministry of Human Resource Development, India, within project code P1506.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Patna, Patna, Bihar, India

    Manish Bhanu, Shalini Priya & Joydeep Chandra

  2. Department of Informatics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    João Mendes Moreira

  3. LIAAD, INESC TEC, Porto, Portugal

    João Mendes Moreira

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  1. Manish Bhanu
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  2. Shalini Priya
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  4. Joydeep Chandra
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Correspondence to Manish Bhanu.

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Bhanu, M., Priya, S., Moreira, J.M. et al. ST-AGP: Spatio-Temporal aggregator predictor model for multi-step taxi-demand prediction in cities. Appl Intell 53, 2110–2132 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-022-03475-7

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