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Method of multilevel rationing and optimal forecasting of volumes of electric-energy consumption by an industrial enterprise

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Abstract

A method is proposed for the multilevel rationing and optimal forecasting of the volumes of electric-energy consumption by an industrial enterprise is offered. On the lower level, the forecasting for individual production sites is performed based on empirical dependences of the specific energy consumption on the quantity of products produced. At a higher level, the problem of minimizing errors in making up the balance of electric-energy consumption by a whole enterprise is solved. An algorithm for coordinating solutions to problems of lower and higher levels using results obtained by applying measuring tools of the corresponding levels is offered. The developed algorithms were tested on real data obtained from power plants of industrial enterprises. Sample calculations showed that it is possible to forecast the energy consumption of a whole enterprise with an accuracy of up to 1% using the proposed method.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Research University, South Ural State University, pr. Lenina 76, Chelyabinsk, 454080, Russia

    L. S. Kazarinov, T. A. Barbasova, O. V. Kolesnikova & A. A. Zakharova

Authors
  1. L. S. Kazarinov
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  2. T. A. Barbasova
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  3. O. V. Kolesnikova
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  4. A. A. Zakharova
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Correspondence to L. S. Kazarinov.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © L.S. Kazarinov, T.A. Barbasova, O.V. Kolesnikova, A.A. Zakharova, 2014, published in Avtomatika i Vychislitel’naya Tekhnika, 2014, No. 6, pp. 20–32.

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Kazarinov, L.S., Barbasova, T.A., Kolesnikova, O.V. et al. Method of multilevel rationing and optimal forecasting of volumes of electric-energy consumption by an industrial enterprise. Aut. Control Comp. Sci. 48, 324–333 (2014). https://doi.org/10.3103/S0146411614060054

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S0146411614060054

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