skip to main content
10.1145/130385.130430acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagescoltConference Proceedingsconference-collections
Article
Free Access

Universal sequential learning and decision from individual data sequences

Authors Info & Claims
Published:01 July 1992Publication History

ABSTRACT

Sequential learning and decision algorithms are investigated, with various application areas, under a family of additive loss functions for individual data sequences. Simple universal sequential schemes are known, under certain conditions, to approach optimality uniformly as fast as n-1logn, where n is the sample size. For the case of finite-alphabet observations, the class of schemes that can be implemented by finite-state machines (FSM's), is studied. It is shown that Markovian machines with sufficiently long memory exist that are asymptotically nearly as good as any given FSM (deterministic or randomized) for the purpose of sequential decision. For the continuous-valued observation case, a useful class of parametric schemes is discussed with special attention to the recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm.

References

  1. A92.P. H. A!goet, "Universal Schemes for Prediction, Gambling, and Portfolio Selection,'' Ann. Probab., April 1992.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  2. AC88.P. H. A!goet and T. M. Cover, "Asymptotic Optimality and Asymptotic Equipartition Properties of Log-Optimum Investment,'' Ann. Probab., 16, No. 2, pp. 876- 898, 1988.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  3. B56.D. Blackwell, "An Analog to the Minimax Theorem for Vector Payoffs," Pac. J. Math., vol. 6, pp. 1-8, 1956.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  4. C74.T. M. Cover, "Universal Gambling Schemes and the Complexity Measures of Kolmogorov and Chaitin," Technical Report 12, Dept. of Statistics, Stanford University, 1974.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  5. C91.T. M. Cover, "Universal Portfolios," mATH.fINANCE,VOL,L,NO.1 PP. 1-29, January 1991.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  6. CS77.T. M. Cover and A. Shenhar, "Compound Bayes Predictors for Sequences with Apparent Markov Structure," IEEE 7~ans. Syst. Man. Cybern., Vol. SMC-7, pp. 421- 424, May-June 1977.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  7. CT91.T. M. Cover and J. A. Thomas, Elements of Information Theory, J. Wiley & Sons, Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  8. CK81.I. Csisz~ and J. Kamer, Information Theory: Coding Theorems for Discrete Memoryless Systems. Academic Press, 1981.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  9. D83.L. D. Davisson, "Minimax Noiseless Universal Coding for Markov Sources," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, IT-29, No. 2, pp. 211-215, 1983.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  10. F91.M. Feder, "Gambling Using a Finite-State Machine," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, Voi. IT-37, No. 5, pp. 1459-1465, Sept. 1991.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  11. FMG92.M. Feder, N. Merhav, and M. Gutman, "Universal Prediction of Individual Sequences," to appear in IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, July 1992. Also, summarized in Proc. 17th Convention of Electrical & Electronics Engineers in Israel, pp. 223-226, May 1991.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  12. G62.A. Gill, Introduction to the Theory of Finite-State Machines. McGraw Hill, 1962.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  13. G68.D. C. Gilliland, "Sequential Compound Estimation," Ann. Math. Statist., Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 1890-1904, 1968.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  14. G72.D. C. Gilliland, "Asymptotic Risk Stability Resulting from Play Against the Past in a Sequence of Decision Problems," IEEE 7?ans. Inform. Theory, Vol. IT-18, No. 5, pp. 614-617, Sept. 1972.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  15. GH69.D. C. Gi!liland, and J. F. Hannan, "On an Extended Compound Decision Problem," Ann. Math. Statist., Vol. 40, No. 5, pp. 1536-1541, 1969.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  16. GH78.D. C. Gilliland and M. K. Helmers, "On the Continuity of the Bayes Response," IEEE I?ans. Inform. Theory, Vol. IT-24, No. 4, pp. 506-508, July 1978.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  17. GP77.G. C. Goodwin and R. L. Payne, Dynamic System Identification: Experiment Design and Data Analysis. Mathematics in Science and Engineering, Vol. 136. Academic Press, 1977.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  18. G84.R. M. Gray, "Vector Quantization," IEEE ASSP Magazine, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 4-29, 1984.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  19. G88.R. M. Gray, Probability, Random Processes, and Ergodic Properties. Springer-Verlag, 1988.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  20. H57.J. F. Hannan, "Approximation to Bayes Risk in Repeated Plays," in Contributions to the Theory of Games, Vol. III, Annals of Mathematics Studies, No. 39, pp. 97-139, Princeton 1957.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  21. HR57.J. F. Hannan and H. Robbins, "Asymptotic Solutions of the Compound Decision Problem for Two Completely Specified Distributions,'' Ann. Math. Statist., Vol. 26, pp. 37-51, 1957.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  22. H86.S. Haykin, Adaptive Filter Theory. Prentice-Hall, 1986. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  23. H72.M. E. Hellman, "The Effects of Randomization on Finite-Memory Decision Schemes," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, IT-18, No. 4, pp. 499-502, 1972.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  24. HC70.M. E. Heilman and T. M. Cover, "Learning with Finite Memory," Ann. Math. Statist., Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 765-782, 1970.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  25. HC71.M. E. Hellman and T. M. Cover, "On Memory Saved by Randomization," Ann. Math. Statist., Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 1075- 1078, 1971.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  26. JN84.N. S. Jayant and P. Noll, Digital Coding of Wave forms. Englewood Cliffs, N.J. Prentice-Hall, 1984.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  27. J67.M. V. Johns, Jr., "Two-action Compound Decision Problems," Proc. Fifth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Prob., Vol. 1, pp. 463-478, University of California Press, 1967.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  28. KT81.R. E. Krichevsky and V. K. Trofimov, "The Performance of Universal Encoding,'' IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, IT-27, No. 2, pp. 199-207, March 1981.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  29. L84.G. G. Langdon, Jr., "An Introduction to Arithmetic Coding," IBM J. Res. Develop., Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 135-149, 1984.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  30. LR86.F. T. Leighton and R. L. Rivcat, "Eatimating a Probability Using Finite Memory," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, IT-32, No. 6, pp. 733-742, 1986. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  31. LBG80.Y, Linde, A. Buzo, and R. M. Gray, "An Algorithm for Vector Quantizer Design," IEEE Trans. Commun., COM-28, No. 1, pp. 84-95, 1980.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  32. M75.J. Makhoui, "Linear Prediction: A Tutorial Review," Proc. IEEE, Vol. 63, No. 4, 1975,Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  33. MF92.N. Merhav and M. Feder, "Universal Schemes for Sequential Decision from Individual Data Sequences," submitted to IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 1992.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  34. N79.Y. Nogami, "The k-Extended Set- Compound Estimation Problem in a Nonregular Family of Distributions over (0,0+1)," Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., Vol. 31A, pp. 169-176, 1979.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  35. PWZ92.E. Plotnik, M. J. Weinberger, and J. Ziv, "Upper Bounds on the Probability of Sequences Emitted by Finite-State Soumes and on the Redundancy of the Lempe!-Ziv Algorithm," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, Vol. IT-38, No. 1, pp. 66-72, January 1992.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  36. R84.J. Rissanen, "Universal Coding, Information, Prediction, and Estimation," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, Vol. IT-30, No. 4, pp. 629-636, July 1984.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  37. R86.J. Rissanen, "Stochastic Complexity and Modeling," Ann. Statist., Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 1080-1100, 1986.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  38. R51.H. Robbins, "Asymptotically Subminimax Solutions of Compound Statistical Decision Problems," Proc. 2nd Berkeley Syrup. Math. Statist. Prob., pp. 131-148, 1951.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  39. S63.E. Samuel, "Asymptotic Solutions of the Sequential Compound Decision Problem," Ann. Math. Statist., pp. 1079-1095, 1963.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  40. S64.E. Samuel, "Convergence of the Losses of Certain Decision Rules for the Sequential Compound Decision Problem," Ann. Math. Statist., pp. 1606-1621, 1964.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  41. S74.B. O. Shubert "Finite-Memory Classification of Bernoulli Sequences Using Reference Samples," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, IT-20, No. 3, pp. 384-387, 1974.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  42. S65.D. D. Swain, "Bounds and Rates of Convergence for the Extended Compound Estimation Problem in the Sequence Case," Tech. Report no. 81, Department of Statistics, Stanford University, 1965.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  43. V66.J. Van Ryzin, "The Sequential Compound Decision Problem with mxn Finite Loss Matrix," Ann. Math. Statist., Vol. 37, pp. 954-975, 1966.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  44. V80.S. B. Vardeman, "Admissible Solutions of k-Extended Finite State Set and Sequence Compound Decision Problems," J. Multivariate Anal., Vol. 10, pp. 426441, 1980.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  45. ZL78.J. Ziv and A. Lempel, "Compression of Individual Sequences via Variable-Rate Coding," IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, IT- 24, No. 5, pp. 530-536, Sept. 1978.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  46. Z90.J. Ziv, "Compression, Tests for Randomness, and Estimating the Statistical Model of an Individual Sequence," in Sequences, (R. M. Capocelli, Ed.) pp. 366-373, Springer-Verlag, 1990. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library

Index Terms

  1. Universal sequential learning and decision from individual data sequences

          Recommendations

          Comments

          Login options

          Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution to get full access on this article.

          Sign in
          • Published in

            cover image ACM Conferences
            COLT '92: Proceedings of the fifth annual workshop on Computational learning theory
            July 1992
            452 pages
            ISBN:089791497X
            DOI:10.1145/130385

            Copyright © 1992 ACM

            Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

            Publisher

            Association for Computing Machinery

            New York, NY, United States

            Publication History

            • Published: 1 July 1992

            Permissions

            Request permissions about this article.

            Request Permissions

            Check for updates

            Qualifiers

            • Article

            Acceptance Rates

            Overall Acceptance Rate35of71submissions,49%

          PDF Format

          View or Download as a PDF file.

          PDF

          eReader

          View online with eReader.

          eReader