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On the identification of intra-seasonal changes in the Indian summer monsoon

Published: 28 June 2009 Publication History

Abstract

Intra-seasonal changes in the Indian summer monsoon are generally characterized by its active and break (A&B) states. Existing methods for identifying the A&B states using rainfall data rely on subjective thresholds, ignore temporal dependence in the data, and disregard inherent uncertainty in their identification. This paper develops a method to identify intra-seasonal changes in the monsoon using a hidden Markov model (HMM) that allows objective classification of the monsoon states. The method facilitates probabilistic interpretation which is especially useful during the transition period between the two monsoon states. The developed method can also be used to - (i) identify monsoon states in real time, (ii) forecast rainfall values, and (iii) generate synthetic data. Comparisons of the results from the proposed model with those from existing methods suggest that the new method is a promising for detecting intra-seasonal changes in the Indian summer monsoon.

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Cited By

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  • (2013)Probabilistic Assessment of Drought Characteristics Using Hidden Markov ModelJournal of Hydrologic Engineering10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.000069918:7(834-845)Online publication date: Jul-2013
  • (2012)Hidden Markov Model Based Probabilistic Assessment of DroughtsWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 201110.1061/41173(414)133(1282-1291)Online publication date: 26-Apr-2012
  • (2009)Change detection in rainfall and temperature patterns over IndiaProceedings of the Third International Workshop on Knowledge Discovery from Sensor Data10.1145/1601966.1601988(133-141)Online publication date: 28-Jun-2009

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  1. On the identification of intra-seasonal changes in the Indian summer monsoon

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      cover image ACM Conferences
      SensorKDD '09: Proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Knowledge Discovery from Sensor Data
      June 2009
      150 pages
      ISBN:9781605586687
      DOI:10.1145/1601966
      Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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      Published: 28 June 2009

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      Author Tags

      1. Indian summer monsoon
      2. active and break states
      3. hidden markov models
      4. variational bayes

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      View all
      • (2013)Probabilistic Assessment of Drought Characteristics Using Hidden Markov ModelJournal of Hydrologic Engineering10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.000069918:7(834-845)Online publication date: Jul-2013
      • (2012)Hidden Markov Model Based Probabilistic Assessment of DroughtsWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 201110.1061/41173(414)133(1282-1291)Online publication date: 26-Apr-2012
      • (2009)Change detection in rainfall and temperature patterns over IndiaProceedings of the Third International Workshop on Knowledge Discovery from Sensor Data10.1145/1601966.1601988(133-141)Online publication date: 28-Jun-2009

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