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Intelligent sales forecasting engine using genetic algorithms

Published: 26 October 2010 Publication History

Abstract

Times series techniques have been extensively used for Sales forecasting. Research has established that a combination forecast works better than a single forecast. Our research attempts to design an Intelligent Forecasting Engine which will use a combination forecasting technique. This design is based on use of Genetic Algorithms, for selecting the best methods to combine for forecasting. Early results demonstrate that Genetic Algorithms have the potential to become a powerful tool for time series sales forecasting.

References

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Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S., and Hyndman, R. (1998). Forecasting methods and Applications. Third Edition. Wiley: NY.
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Bates, J. M., & Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Combination of forecasts. Operations Research Quarterly, 20, 451--468.
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Granger, C., & Ramanathan, R. (1984). Improved methods of combining forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 3, 197--204.
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J. Scott Armstrong. October 1990, Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? International Journal of Forecasting, 5(4):585--588, (Reformatted September 2006)
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S. Makridakis and M. Hibon. 2000, The M3-Competition: Results, Conclusions and Implications. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4):451--476.
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R. Singh, "On using various decomposition methods in time series forecasting," Master's thesis, Kanwal Rekhi School of Information Technology, IIT Bombay, Powai, Bombay, 400076, INDIA, 2006.
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B. Menezes, A. Seth, and R. Singh, 2007, "Can a million experts improve your sales' forecasts?" European Symposium on Time Series Prediction.
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Mitchell M. An Introduction to Genetic Algorithms (MIT press, Cambridge, USA. 1996.)
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Beasley, D., Bull, D.R., Martin, R. R., 1993. An overview of genetic algorithms: part I, fundamentals. University Computing 15.
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Sam Mahfoud and Ganesh, 1996, Mani "Financial Forecasting Using genetic Algorithms", Applied Artificial Intelligence, 10:543± 565.
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Cited By

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  • (2020)Effective Demand Forecasting Model Using Business Intelligence Empowered With Machine LearningIEEE Access10.1109/ACCESS.2020.30037908(116013-116023)Online publication date: 2020
  • (2019)Benchmarking of Regression Algorithms and Time Series Analysis Techniques for Sales ForecastingBalkan Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering10.17694/bajece.494920(20-26)Online publication date: 31-Jan-2019

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cover image ACM Conferences
CIKM '10: Proceedings of the 19th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
October 2010
2036 pages
ISBN:9781450300995
DOI:10.1145/1871437
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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Publication History

Published: 26 October 2010

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Author Tags

  1. combination forecasting
  2. data mining
  3. decomposition
  4. genetic algorithms
  5. sales forecasting
  6. times series

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Cited By

View all
  • (2020)Effective Demand Forecasting Model Using Business Intelligence Empowered With Machine LearningIEEE Access10.1109/ACCESS.2020.30037908(116013-116023)Online publication date: 2020
  • (2019)Benchmarking of Regression Algorithms and Time Series Analysis Techniques for Sales ForecastingBalkan Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering10.17694/bajece.494920(20-26)Online publication date: 31-Jan-2019

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