research-article

A DEVS model for demographic microsimulation

Authors:

Jan Himmelspach,

Adelinde M. UhrmacherAuthors Info & Claims

SpringSim '10: Proceedings of the 2010 Spring Simulation Multiconference

Article No.: 146, Pages 1 - 8

https://doi.org/10.1145/1878537.1878689

Published: 11 April 2010 Publication History

Abstract

Microsimulation is increasingly applied in demography to project the development of populations. A stochastic model is being introduced that describes individual life courses on a continuous time base. Life courses are determined by sequences of demographic events. We show how this demographic multi-state projection model can be specified as an atomic model in DEVS. Thereby, strengths but also limitations of this approach are revealed. The limitations are addressed by exploiting a DEVS variant that supports variable structures, i.e., DYNPDEVS, and by modeling individuals as atomic models and the population as a network model. An example projection of a synthetical population based on the population of Italy shows the plausibility and the feasibility of the developed model.

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Cited By

Steiniger AUhrmacher AZinn SGampe JWillekens FBuckley SMiller J(2014)The role of languages for modeling and simulating continuous-time multi-level models in demographyProceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2693848.2694224(2978-2989)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2014
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2693848.2694224
Willekens FPutter H(2014)Software for multistate analysisDemographic Research10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.1431(381-420)Online publication date: 6-Aug-2014
https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.14
Steiniger AUhrmacher AZinn SGampe JWillekens F(2014)The role of languages for modeling and simulating continuous-time multi-level models in demographyProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference 201410.1109/WSC.2014.7020137(2978-2989)Online publication date: Dec-2014
https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2014.7020137
Show More Cited By

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Information

Published In

cover image ACM Other conferences

SpringSim '10: Proceedings of the 2010 Spring Simulation Multiconference

April 2010

1726 pages

ISBN:9781450300698

General Chairs:
Robert McGraw
RAM Laboratories, Inc
,
Eric Imsand
Auburn University
,
Program Chair:
Michael J. Chinni
US Army - RDECOM - ARDEC

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SCS: Society for Modeling and Simulation International

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SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling

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Society for Computer Simulation International

San Diego, CA, United States

Publication History

Published: 11 April 2010

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SpringSim '10: 2010 Spring Simulation Conference

April 11 - 15, 2010

Florida, Orlando

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Cited By

Steiniger AUhrmacher AZinn SGampe JWillekens FBuckley SMiller J(2014)The role of languages for modeling and simulating continuous-time multi-level models in demographyProceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2693848.2694224(2978-2989)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2014
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2693848.2694224
Willekens FPutter H(2014)Software for multistate analysisDemographic Research10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.1431(381-420)Online publication date: 6-Aug-2014
https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.14
Steiniger AUhrmacher AZinn SGampe JWillekens F(2014)The role of languages for modeling and simulating continuous-time multi-level models in demographyProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference 201410.1109/WSC.2014.7020137(2978-2989)Online publication date: Dec-2014
https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2014.7020137
Smith STayman JSwanson DSmith STayman JSwanson D(2013)Structural and Microsimulation ModelsA Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_9(215-249)Online publication date: 26-Oct-2013
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_9
Swanson DTayman JSwanson DTayman J(2012)Other MethodsSubnational Population Estimates10.1007/978-90-481-8954-0_12(219-242)Online publication date: 8-Mar-2012
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8954-0_12
Willekens F(2011)La microsimulation dans les projections de populationMicrosimulation in population projectionCahiers québécois de démographie10.7202/1011542ar40:2(267)Online publication date: 2011
https://doi.org/10.7202/1011542ar
Griffith CSwanson DKnight M(2011)DOMICILE 1.0: An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Population Estimates at the Domicile LevelOpportunities and Challenges for Applied Demography in the 21st Century10.1007/978-94-007-2297-2_19(345-370)Online publication date: 11-Nov-2011
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2297-2_19

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