skip to main content
research-article
Free Access

Calculating and improving ROI in software and system programs

Published:01 September 2011Publication History
Skip Abstract Section

Abstract

The investment value of innovation follows from a technology's uncertain net present value and derived ROI calculations.

References

  1. Ambler, S. Agile Modeling: Effective Practices for eXtreme Programming and the Unified Process. Wiley, New York, 2002. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  2. Baldwin, C. and Clark, K. Design Rules Volume 1 The Power of Modularity, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2000. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  3. Berg, C. Value-Driven IT. Cliff Berg Imprints, Reston, VA, 2008. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  4. Biffl, S. Value-Based Software Engineering. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2005. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  5. Cooper, R., Edgett, S., and Kleinschmidt E. Portfolio Management for New Products, Second Edition. Basic Books, Cambridge, MA, 2001.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  6. Damodaran, A. Strategic Risk Taking. Wharton School Publishing, Philadelphia, 2008.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  7. Fleischman, J. New York City Health and Human Services Connect; private communication.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  8. Hubbard, D. How to Measure Anything. Wiley, New York, 2007.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  9. Jones, C. Applied Software Measurement, Third Edition. McGraw Hill, New York, 2009.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  10. Kauffman, R. and Sougstad, R. Risk management of IT services portfolios: The profit-at-risk approach. Journal of Management Information Systems 25, 1 (Summer 2008), 17--48. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  11. Kauffman, R. and Sougstad, R. Value-at-risk in services-oriented systems and technology investments: A framework for managing project portfolio uncertainties. International Journal of Services Science 1, 3--4 (2008), 225--246.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  12. Kodukula, P. and Papudesu, C. Project Valuation Using Real Options. J. Ross Publishing, Fort Lauderdale, FL, 2006.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  13. Kroll, P. and Kruchten, P. The Rational Unified Process Made Easy: A Practitioner's Guide to the RUP. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 2003. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  14. Louvier, J. Analyzing Decision Making: Metric Conjoint Analysis (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences). Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 1988.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  15. Lutchen, M. Managing IT As A Business. Wiley, New York, 2004.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  16. Martin, R. Agile Software Development, Principles, Patterns, and Practices. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2002. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  17. Mathews, S. Valuing risky projects with real options. Research Technology Management Journal 52, 5 (Sept. 2009), 32--42.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  18. McConnell, S. Software Estimation. Microsoft Press, Redmond, WA, 2006. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  19. Michaud, R. Efficient Asset Management. Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge, MA, 1998.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  20. Mun, J. Applied Risk Analysis. Wiley, New York, 2004.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  21. Mun, J. Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques for Valuing Strategic Investment and Decisions, Second Edition. Wiley Finance, New York, 2005.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  22. Prigent, J. Portfolio Optimization and Performance Analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL, 2007.Google ScholarGoogle ScholarCross RefCross Ref
  23. Sullivan, K. J., Griswold, W. G., Cai, Y., and Hallen, B. The structure and value of modularity in software design. In Proceedings of the Eighth European Software Engineering Conference, held jointly with the Ninth ACM SIGSOFT International Symposium on Foundations of Software Engineering (Vienna, Austria, Sept. 10--14). ACM Press, New York, 2001, 99--108. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library
  24. Tockey, S. Return on Software. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 2005.Google ScholarGoogle Scholar
  25. U.S. Department of Transportation. Treatment of the Economic Value of a Statistical Life in Departmental Analyses - 2009 Annual Revision; http://ostpxweb.ost.dot.gov/policy/reports/VSL%20Guidance%20031809%20a.pdfGoogle ScholarGoogle Scholar
  26. Wiederhold, G. What is your software worth? Commun. ACM 49, 9 (Sept. 2006), 65--75. Google ScholarGoogle ScholarDigital LibraryDigital Library

Index Terms

  1. Calculating and improving ROI in software and system programs

                    Recommendations

                    Reviews

                    Alexei Botchkarev

                    Return on investment (ROI) is one of the most popular metrics for assessing the value of software and systems during project selection and solution acquisition. The topic of ROI evaluation is highly important to chief information officers (CIOs), chief technology officers (CTOs), chief financial officers (CFOs), business, and information technology (IT) project teams. There are multiple ways to calculate the ROI. Murray Cantor, an IBM Distinguished Engineer, presents a novice approach. It is worth noting because it offers the potential of aligning ROI evaluations with program management decisions to maximize the enterprise strategic value. The foundational notion of this approach is that future costs and benefits, which constitute the main components of ROI calculations, are uncertain and need to be presented using random variables. An investment value (IV) metric is proposed, which is based on the net present value (NPV) of the program, and all future values are defined as random variables. Any future value of costs and benefits is specified through a triangle distribution with high, expected, and low values. The IV probability distribution function is calculated through Monte Carlo simulation. The value of the program is estimated by the mean of the IV. The likelihood of delivering the program value (or the investment risk) is calculated as the standard deviation divided by the absolute value of the mean. The last parameter does not seem to be intuitive for investors. The validity of the proposed method has been tested in a real-life healthcare program, in New York, using IBM Rational Focal Point. The utility (practical use) of the approach is complicated by the rather high requirements of the members of the implementation project team, who need to have a good understanding of statistics methods, modeling, and simulation. Readers who are interested in ROI can find additional information on the subject [1,2]. Online Computing Reviews Service

                    Access critical reviews of Computing literature here

                    Become a reviewer for Computing Reviews.

                    Comments

                    Login options

                    Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution to get full access on this article.

                    Sign in

                    Full Access

                    • Published in

                      cover image Communications of the ACM
                      Communications of the ACM  Volume 54, Issue 9
                      September 2011
                      121 pages
                      ISSN:0001-0782
                      EISSN:1557-7317
                      DOI:10.1145/1995376
                      Issue’s Table of Contents

                      Copyright © 2011 ACM

                      Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

                      Publisher

                      Association for Computing Machinery

                      New York, NY, United States

                      Publication History

                      • Published: 1 September 2011

                      Permissions

                      Request permissions about this article.

                      Request Permissions

                      Check for updates

                      Qualifiers

                      • research-article
                      • Popular
                      • Refereed

                    PDF Format

                    View or Download as a PDF file.

                    PDF

                    eReader

                    View online with eReader.

                    eReader

                    HTML Format

                    View this article in HTML Format .

                    View HTML Format