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Visualization and modeling of dengue fever surveillance with SIR endemic model

Published: 05 December 2011 Publication History

Abstract

Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) models have been used to model the spread of a disease. In this paper, we propose the use of SIR to model the dengue fever spread in Semarang district, Central Java province, Indonesia. We built a web-based application that uses the model to determine and predict an area is either endemic or disease-free. The application also equipped with map to visualize the prediction using Google Map API v3. Our result shows, using SIR model on past five years dengue fever surveillance data, the application can predict that 15 of 19 sub-districts of Semarang are dengue endemic area in next years.

References

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V. A. Bokil. Introduction to the Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. 2007 REU Program in Mathematics, Oregon State University, Corvalis, Oregon, USA, August 2007.
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B. Hariyana. Pengembangan Sistem Informasi Surveilans Epidemiologi DBD untuk Kewaspadaan Dini dengan GIS di Wilayah Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Jepara (in Indonesian). Master Thesis, Program Studi Magister Ilmu Kesehatan Masyarakat, Konsentrasi Sistem Informasi Manajemen Kesehatan, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang, 2007.
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Health office of Central Java province. Semarang District in Number, 2005--2009. Health office of Central Java province, Semarang, Indonesia, 2009.
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W. Kermack and A. McKendrick. A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, 115:700--721, August 1927.
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Ministry of Health Republic of Indonesia. Pencegahan dan Pemberantasan Demam Berdarah Dengue di Indonesia (in Indonesian). Direktorat Jenderal Pengendalian Penyakit dan Penyehatan Lingkungan, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2005.
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E.-E. Ooi, D. J. Gubler, and V. S. Nam. Dengue Research needs Related to Surveillance and Emergency Response. Report of the scientific working group on Dengue, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007.
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J.-P. Shi. SIR model. Math 345 Lecture notes, Departement of Mathematics, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, USA, http://www.resnet.wm.edu/jxshix/math345/lect19.pdf, 2006.
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A. Sujudi. Health Minister of Republic of Indonesia Decree Number 1116/Menkes/SK/VIII/2003: Implementation Guidelines for Health Epidemiology Surveillance system. Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, 2003.
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World Health Organization. Dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en/, March 2009.

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  1. Visualization and modeling of dengue fever surveillance with SIR endemic model

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    cover image ACM Other conferences
    iiWAS '11: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Information Integration and Web-based Applications and Services
    December 2011
    572 pages
    ISBN:9781450307840
    DOI:10.1145/2095536
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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    Publication History

    Published: 05 December 2011

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    Author Tags

    1. SIR model
    2. dengue fever
    3. endemic area
    4. visualization

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