Targeting converters for new campaigns through factor models

In performance based display advertising, campaign effectiveness is often measured in terms of conversions that represent some desired user actions like purchases and product information requests on advertisers' website. Hence, identifying and targeting potential converters is of vital importance to boost campaign performance. This is often accomplished by marketers who define the user base of campaigns based on behavioral, demographic, search, social, purchase, and other characteristics. Such a process is manual and subjective, it often fails to utilize the full potential of targeting. In this paper we show that by using past converted users of campaigns and campaign meta-data (e.g., ad creatives, landing pages), we can combine disparate user information in a principled way to effectively and automatically target converters for new/existing campaigns. At the heart of our approach is a factor model that estimates the affinity of each user feature to a campaign using historical conversion data. In fact, our approach allows building a conversion model for a brand new campaign through campaign meta-data alone, and hence targets potential converters even before the campaign is run. Through extensive experiments, we show the superiority of our factor model approach relative to several other baselines. Moreover, we show that the performance of our approach at the beginning of a campaign's life is typically better than the other models even when they are trained using all conversion data after the campaign has completed. This clearly shows the importance and value of using historical campaign data in constructing an effective audience selection strategy for display advertising.