skip to main content
10.1145/2691195.2691256acmotherconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesicegovConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

State stability: a governance analysis framework for Arab spring countries

Published: 27 October 2014 Publication History

Abstract

The 2011-2012 Arab Spring uprising can be considered a new political phenomenon with respect to collective action and the origin of network governance in North Africa and the Middle East. Nevertheless, current formal and empirical models are incapable of analyzing and predicting the future of the uprisings. Therefore, the conceptualization of these models must be reviewed given the increasing need for a political analytical model that can assess the state of the state and consider the influence of non-state actors on service provision and security mechanisms inside their society. The circumstances require a simple conceptual model to describe state status (stable or unstable) in a simple representational form for countries such as Egypt following the Arab Spring.
This study propose a framework to explain the influence of network governance on state stability, it was preferable that this model be general and conceptual. Thus, this framework can offer a more realistic explanation of the political transformations that occurred in the Arab Spring countries, such as Egypt. The analysis showed that formal mathematical models could not persuasively explain the Arab Spring phenomenon because such models are based on theories and ideas that are inapplicable to the changes in the political environment that occurred in these countries. The proposed framework, attempts to describe state status, whereby a state is stable or unstable and it is not necessary for the state to be a failed state. This framework aims to help political analysts develop recommendations for policy- and decision-makers on how to avoid state instability.

References

[1]
Abdollahian, M, M Baranick, B Efird and J Kugler. A Predictive Political Simulation Model. Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University. 2006. http://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/publications.html (accessed 10 4, 2012).
[2]
Aragonès, E, and P Dellunde. "An Automated Model of Government Formation." Workshop on the Political Economy of Democracy, 2008.
[3]
Atkinson, M, and W Coleman. Policy networks, policy communities and the problems of governance. 1992.
[4]
Atkinson, M, and W Coleman. "Strong States and Weak States: Sectoral Policy Networks in Advanced Capitalist Economies." British Journal of Political Science 14, no. 1 (1989): 46--67.
[5]
Ayoob, M. "State Making, State Breaking and State Failure." In Turbulent Peace: The Challenges of Managing International Conflict, edited by C Crocker, F Hampson and P Aall. Washington, DC.: United States Institute of Peace, 2001.
[6]
Banks, J, and J Duggan. "A bargaining model of collective choice." American Political Science Review 94, no. 1 (2000): 73--88.
[7]
Campbell, J. "Evaluating U.S. presidential election forecasts and forecasting equations." International Journal of Forecasting 24, no. 2 (2008): 259--271.
[8]
Campbell, J, and M Lewis-Beck. "Introduction---The 2004 presidential election forecasts." Political Science & Politics 37, no. 4 (2004): 733--736.
[9]
Chhotray, V, and G Stoker. Governance Theory and Practice: A Cross Disciplinary Approach. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.
[10]
Choucri, N, et al. Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics. working paper 4574-06, MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006.
[11]
Clarke, K, and D Primo. "Modernizing Political Science: A Model-Based Approach." Perspectives on Politics 5, no. 4 (2007): 741--754.
[12]
Crossroad. "A Participative Roadmap for ICT Research in Electronic Governance and Policy Modelling-State of the Art Analysis." the European Commission, 2010.
[13]
Daniel, L. Intelligence Community Needs to Predict Uprisings. 2011. http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=62790 (accessed 10 6, 2012).
[14]
Daugbjerg, C, and P Fawcett. "Governance Theory and the question of power: lesson drawing from the Governance Network and Policy Network Analysis Schools." The Australian Political Studies Association Conference. Melbourne: School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, 2010. 27--29.
[15]
Day, J. The strategy of presidential campaigns. Phd Dissertation, University of Iowa, Iowa Research Online, 2010.
[16]
Diermeier, D, H Eraslan, and A Merlo. "A Structural Model of Governmment Formation." Econometrica 71, no. 1 (2003): 27--70.
[17]
Dobbins, J. Beginner's Guide to Nation Building. RAND NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, Santa Monicaz: Rand Corporation, 2007.
[18]
eGovPoliNet. The added value brought by eGovPoliNet and Crossover. 2010. http://www.policy-community.eu/in-a-nutshell/the-added-value-brought-by-egovpolinet (accessed 10 22, 2012).
[19]
European Commission. "European Governance: a White Paper." Vers. 428. European Commission. 2001. http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/governance/index_en.htm (accessed April 1, 2012).
[20]
Fawcett, P, and C Daugbjerg. "Explaining Governance Outcomes: Epistemology, Network Governance and Policy Network Analysis." Political Studies Review 10, no. 2 (2012): 195--208.
[21]
Foucault, M, and R Nadeau. "Forecasting the 2012 French Presidential Election." PS Political Science and Politics 45, no. 2 (2012): 218--223.
[22]
Galeotti, M, and D Josselin. Non-State Actors in World Politics. Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave, 2001.
[23]
Giere, R. "Using models to represent reality." In Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery, edited by L Magnani, N Nersessian and P Thagard. New York: Kluwer Academic and Plenum Publishers, 1999.
[24]
Glasgow, G, M Golder, and S Golder. "Modeling the Government Formation Process." MPSA Annual National Conference. Chicago: unpublished, 2008.
[25]
Goldstone, J. "Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict." Journal of International Affairs 56, no. 1 (2002): 11--12.
[26]
Goldstone, J, and J Ulfelder. "How to Construct Stable Democracies." The Washington Quarterly 28, no. 1 (2004): 9--20.
[27]
Goldstone, J, et al. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability." American Journal of Political Science 54, no. 1 (2010): 190--208.
[28]
Graefe, A. Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections. 2012. http://ssrn.com/abstract=2110794 (accessed 10 5, 2012).
[29]
Guardian. Egypt's supreme court dissolves parliament and outrages Islamists. 2012. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/14/egypt-parliament-dissolved-supreme-court (accessed 10 29, 2012).
[30]
Hamza, K. The Impact of Social Media and Network Governance on State Stability in Times of Turbulence: Egypt After 2011 Revolution. PhD Thesis, Institute for European Studies, Brussels: Vrije Universiteit, 2013.
[31]
Hamza, K, and J Van Dalen. "E-Governance and Strategic Information Warfare -- Non Military Approach." 6th International Conference on Information Warfare & Security. Washington, DC, 2011.
[32]
Johnson, P. "Simulation Modeling in Political Science." American Behavioral Scientist 42, no. 10 (1999): 1509--1530.
[33]
Kingdon, J. Agendas, alternatives, and public policies. Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1984.
[34]
Kooiman, J. Governing as governanc. London: Sage, 2003.
[35]
Kooiman, J. Modern governance: New government-society interactions. london: Sage, 1993.
[36]
Lewis-Beck, M, and C Tien. "Forecasting presidential elections: when to change the model." International Journal of Forecasting 24, no. 2 (2008): 227--236.
[37]
Lewis-Beck, M, and C Tien. "The future in forecasting: Prospective presidential models." American Politics Quarterly 24, no. 4 (1996): 468--491.
[38]
Lewis-Beck, M, and T Rice. Forecasting Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1992.
[39]
Linzer, D. "A Bayesian Prediction Model for the U.S. Presidential Election." American Politics Research 37 (2009): 700--724.
[40]
Macintosh, A. eParticipation in policy-making: The research and the challenges. In Exploiting the knowledge economy: Issues, applications, case studies. Amsterdam: IOS Press, 2006.
[41]
Marsh, D, and R Rhodes. Policy Networks in British Government. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992.
[42]
Martin, L, and R Stevenson. An Empirical Model of Government Formation in Parliamentary Democracies. 2012. http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=358 (accessed Oct 5, 2012).
[43]
Meier, K, and L O'Toole. "Managerial Networking: Issues of Measurement and Research Design." Administration & Society 37, no. 5 (2005): 523--541.
[44]
Meier, K, and L O'Toole. "Managerial Strategies and Behavior in Networks: A Model with Evidence from U.S. Public Education." Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 11, no. 3 (2001): 271--293.
[45]
Morton, R. Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
[46]
NBC News. Intelligence community under fire for Egypt surprise. 2011. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41423648/ns/politics-more_politics/t/intelligence-community-under-fire-egypt-surprise/ (accessed 10 4, 2012).
[47]
OECD. Concepts and Dilemmas of State Building in Fragile Situations: FROM FRAGILITY TO RESILIENCE. UN report, OECD, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, 2008.
[48]
OECD. "OECD Policy Briefs: Engaging Citizens Online for Better Policy." http://www.oecd.org. 2004. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/62/23/2501856.pdf (accessed september 2011).
[49]
OECD/DAC. "Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations." UN report, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, Paris, 2007.
[50]
Oliver, P. "Formal Models of Collective Action." Annual Review of Sociology 19 (1993): 271--320.
[51]
Oliver, P, and D Myers. "Formal Models in Studying Collective Action and Social Movements." In Methods of Social Movement Research, edited by B Kiandermans and S Staggenborg. Minnesota: University of Minnesota Press, 2002.
[52]
Ostrom, E. Governing the commons: The evolution of institutions for collective action. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990.
[53]
Pollitt, C, and G Bouckaert. Public Management Reform: A Comparative Analysis. 2nd. New York: Oxford University Press, 2004.
[54]
Porter, R. Knowledge utilization and the process of policy formation: Toward a framework for Africa. Washington, DC: USAID, 1995.
[55]
Quinn, K, and A Martin. "An Integrated Computational Model of Multiparty Electoral Competition." Statistical Science 17, no. 4 (2002): 405--419.
[56]
Rhodes, R. A. W. Governance and public administration. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.
[57]
Rhodes, R A W. "Policy network analysis." In The oxford handbook of public policy, edited by M Moran, M Rein and R Goodin, 425--447. New York: Oxford University Press, 2006.
[58]
Rhodes, R A W. "The new governance: Governing without government." Political Studies 44, no. 4 (1996): 652--667.
[59]
Rhodes, R A W. "Understanding Governance: Ten Years On." Organization Studies 28, no. 8 (2007): 1243--1264.
[60]
Rhodes, R A W, I Bache, and S George. "Policy Network and Policy Making in the Europen Union: A Critical Appraisal." In Cohesion Policy and European Integration: Building Multi-Level Governance, edited by L Hooghe, 367--387. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.
[61]
Rhodes, R. A. W. Understanding governance: Policy networks, governance, reflexivity and accountability. Buckingham: Open University Press, 1997.
[62]
Sabatier, P A. "Toward better theories of the policy process." Political Science and Politics 24, no. 2 (1991): 147--156.
[63]
Sabatier, P A, and C M Weible. "The advocacy coalition: Innovations and clarifications." In Theories of the policy Process, edited by P Sabatier, 189--220. Boulder, CO: Westview, 2007.
[64]
Sabatier, P. Theories of the policy process. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2007.
[65]
Sabatier, P, and H Jenkins-Smith. Policy change and learning: An advocacy coalition approach. Boulder: Westview Press, 1993.
[66]
Sabatier, P, and H Jenkins-Smith. "The Advocacy Coalition Framework: An Assessment." In Theories of the Policy Process, edited by P Sabatier, 117--166. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1999.
[67]
Schlager, E. "A Comparison of Frameworks, Theories, and Models of Policy Processes." In Theories of the Policies Process, edited by P A Sabatier, 233--260. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1999.
[68]
Shachtman, N. Pentagon's Prediction Software Didn't Spot Egypt Unrest. 2011. http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/pentagon-predict-egypt-unrest/ (accessed 10 6, 2012).
[69]
The Economist. Egypt's constitution: An endless debate over religion's role. 2012. http://www.economist.com/node/21564249 (accessed 10 29, 2012).
[70]
Tilly, C. From mobilization to revolution. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley, 1978.
[71]
Tilly, C. Social Movements. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers, 2005.
[72]
Tilly, C. "Social movements and (all sorts of) other political interactions -- local, national, and international -- including identities." Theory and Society (Springer Netherlands) 47, no. 4 (1998): 452--480.
[73]
Toros, E. "Forecasting elections in Turkey." International Journal of Forecasting 27, no. 4 (2011): 1248--1258.
[74]
Volden, C. "A Formal Model of the Politics of Delegation in a Separation of Powers System." American Journal of Political Science 46, no. 1 (2002): 111--133.
[75]
Wachhaus, T. "Anarchy as a Model for Network Governance." The American Society for Public Administration 72, no. 1 (2011): 33--42.

Index Terms

  1. State stability: a governance analysis framework for Arab spring countries

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM Other conferences
    ICEGOV '14: Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance
    October 2014
    563 pages
    ISBN:9781605586113
    DOI:10.1145/2691195
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

    Sponsors

    • Macao Foundation, Macao SAR Govt: Macao Foundation, Macao SAR Government
    • Municipio de Guimarães: Municipio de Guimarães

    Publisher

    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 27 October 2014

    Permissions

    Request permissions for this article.

    Check for updates

    Author Tags

    1. Arab spring
    2. Egypt
    3. fragile state
    4. framework
    5. governance
    6. policy modelling
    7. policy network
    8. state stability
    9. turbulences

    Qualifiers

    • Research-article

    Conference

    ICEGOV2014
    Sponsor:
    • Macao Foundation, Macao SAR Govt
    • Municipio de Guimarães

    Acceptance Rates

    ICEGOV '14 Paper Acceptance Rate 30 of 73 submissions, 41%;
    Overall Acceptance Rate 350 of 865 submissions, 40%

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • 0
      Total Citations
    • 97
      Total Downloads
    • Downloads (Last 12 months)10
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)1
    Reflects downloads up to 22 Jan 2025

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    View Options

    Login options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media