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DOBRO: a prediction error correcting robot under drifts

Published: 04 April 2016 Publication History

Abstract

We propose DOBRO, a light online learning module, which is equipped with a smart correction policy helping making decision to correct or not the given prediction depending on how likely the correction will lead to a better prediction performance. DOBRO is a standalone module requiring nothing more than a time series of prediction errors and it is flexible to be integrated into any black-box model to improve its performance under drifts. We performed evaluation in a real-world application with bus arrival time prediction problem. The obtained results show that DOBRO improved prediction performance significantly meanwhile it did not hurt the accuracy when drift does not happen.

References

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H. H. Ang et al. Predictive handling of asynchronous concept drifts in distributed environments. TKDE, 25(10):2343--2355, 2013.
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J. Gama et al. A survey on concept drift adaptation. ACM Comput. Surv., 46(4):44, 2014.
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O. Mazhelis et al. Context-aware personal route recognition. In DS'2011, pages 221--235.
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E. A. Nadaraya. On estimating regression. Theory of Probability and its Applications, 9:141--142, 1964.
[5]
M. Sinn et al. Predicting arrival times of buses using real-time GPS measurements. In ITSC'2012, pages 1227--1232.
[6]
I. Zliobaite, J. Bakker, and M. Pechenizkiy. Beating the baseline prediction in food sales: How intelligent an intelligent predictor is? ESWA, 39(1):806--815, 2012.

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  1. DOBRO: a prediction error correcting robot under drifts

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    cover image ACM Conferences
    SAC '16: Proceedings of the 31st Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing
    April 2016
    2360 pages
    ISBN:9781450337397
    DOI:10.1145/2851613
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 04 April 2016

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    Author Tags

    1. ARIMA
    2. concept drift
    3. on-line prediction error correction

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    SAC 2016
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    SAC 2016: Symposium on Applied Computing
    April 4 - 8, 2016
    Pisa, Italy

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    SAC '16 Paper Acceptance Rate 252 of 1,047 submissions, 24%;
    Overall Acceptance Rate 1,650 of 6,669 submissions, 25%

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    SAC '25
    The 40th ACM/SIGAPP Symposium on Applied Computing
    March 31 - April 4, 2025
    Catania , Italy

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