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Decision-Making under Uncertainty: How the Amount of Presented Uncertainty Influences User Behavior

Authors:

Albrecht SchmidtAuthors Info & Claims

NordiCHI '16: Proceedings of the 9th Nordic Conference on Human-Computer Interaction

Article No.: 52, Pages 1 - 4

https://doi.org/10.1145/2971485.2971535

Published: 23 October 2016 Publication History

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Abstract

In everyday life, people regularly make decisions based on uncertain data, e.g., when using a navigation device or looking at the weather forecast. In our work, we compare four representations that communicate different amounts of uncertainty information to the user. We compared them in a study by publishing a web-based game on Facebook. In total, 44 users played 991 turns. We analyzed the turns by logging game metrics such as the gain per turn and included a survey element. The results show that abundance of uncertainty information leads to taking unnecessary risks. However, representations with aggregated detailed uncertainty provide a good trade-off between being understandable by the players and encouraging medium risks with high gains. Absence of uncertainty information reduces the risk taking and leads to more won turns, but with the lowest money gain.

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Leffrang DMüller O(2024)Visualizing Uncertainty in Time Series Forecasts: The Impact of Uncertainty Visualization on Users' Confidence, Algorithmic Advice Utilization, and Forecasting PerformanceJournal of Forecasting10.1002/for.3222Online publication date: 28-Nov-2024
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Daschner SObermaier R(2024)Do We Use Relatively Bad (Algorithmic) Advice? The Effects of Performance Feedback and Advice Representation on Advice UsageJournal of Behavioral Decision Making10.1002/bdm.7000137:5Online publication date: 24-Nov-2024
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Krüger MCarros FBrandt Mde Castro Leal D(2023)Adapting Forests to an Uncertain ClimateProceedings of the 6th ACM SIGCAS/SIGCHI Conference on Computing and Sustainable Societies10.1145/3588001.3609362(54-63)Online publication date: 16-Aug-2023
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Decision-Making under Uncertainty: How the Amount of Presented Uncertainty Influences User Behavior
1. Human-centered computing

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Published In

NordiCHI '16: Proceedings of the 9th Nordic Conference on Human-Computer Interaction

October 2016

1045 pages

ISBN:9781450347631

DOI:10.1145/2971485

General Chairs:
Staffan Björk
University of Gothenburg
,
Eva Eriksson
Chalmers University of Technology
,
Program Chairs:
Morten Fjeld
Chalmers University of Technology
,
Susanne Bødker
University of Aarhus
,
Publications Chairs:
Wolmet Barendregt
University of Gothenburg
,
Mohammad Obaid
Chalmers University of Technology

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Chalmers University of Technology
SIGCHI: ACM Special Interest Group on Computer-Human Interaction

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 23 October 2016

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NordiCHI '16

NordiCHI '16: 9th Nordic Conference on Human-Computer Interaction

October 23 - 27, 2016

Gothenburg, Sweden

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NordiCHI '16 Paper Acceptance Rate 58 of 231 submissions, 25%;

Overall Acceptance Rate 379 of 1,572 submissions, 24%

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Leffrang DMüller O(2024)Visualizing Uncertainty in Time Series Forecasts: The Impact of Uncertainty Visualization on Users' Confidence, Algorithmic Advice Utilization, and Forecasting PerformanceJournal of Forecasting10.1002/for.3222Online publication date: 28-Nov-2024
https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3222
Daschner SObermaier R(2024)Do We Use Relatively Bad (Algorithmic) Advice? The Effects of Performance Feedback and Advice Representation on Advice UsageJournal of Behavioral Decision Making10.1002/bdm.7000137:5Online publication date: 24-Nov-2024
https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.70001
Krüger MCarros FBrandt Mde Castro Leal D(2023)Adapting Forests to an Uncertain ClimateProceedings of the 6th ACM SIGCAS/SIGCHI Conference on Computing and Sustainable Societies10.1145/3588001.3609362(54-63)Online publication date: 16-Aug-2023
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3588001.3609362
Prabhudesai SYang LAsthana SHuan XLiao QBanovic N(2023)Understanding Uncertainty: How Lay Decision-makers Perceive and Interpret Uncertainty in Human-AI Decision MakingProceedings of the 28th International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces10.1145/3581641.3584033(379-396)Online publication date: 27-Mar-2023
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Jost PDivitini MLamas DSarapuu HŠmorgun IBerget G(2020)Game elicitation: exploring assistance in delayed-effect supply chain decision makingProceedings of the 11th Nordic Conference on Human-Computer Interaction: Shaping Experiences, Shaping Society10.1145/3419249.3420154(1-10)Online publication date: 25-Oct-2020
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Recommendations

Understanding Uncertainty: How Lay Decision-makers Perceive and Interpret Uncertainty in Human-AI Decision Making

Supporting informed decision-making under uncertainty and risk through interactive visualisation

A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty

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