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Spatiotemporal Event Forecasting from Incomplete Hyper-local Price Data

Published: 06 November 2017 Publication History

Abstract

Hyper-local pricing data, e.g., about foods and commodities, exhibit subtle spatiotemporal variations that can be useful as crucial precursors of future events. Three major challenges in modeling such pricing data include: i) temporal dependencies underlying features; ii) spatiotemporal missing values; and iii) constraints underlying economic phenomena. These challenges hinder traditional event forecasting models from being applied effectively. This paper proposes a novel spatiotemporal event forecasting model that concurrently addresses the above challenges. Specifically, given continuous price data, a new soft time-lagged model is designed to select temporally dependent features. To handle missing values, we propose a data tensor completion method based on price domain knowledge. The parameters of the new model are optimized using a novel algorithm based on the Alternative Direction Methods of Multipliers (ADMM). Extensive experimental evaluations on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

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      cover image ACM Conferences
      CIKM '17: Proceedings of the 2017 ACM on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
      November 2017
      2604 pages
      ISBN:9781450349185
      DOI:10.1145/3132847
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      Published: 06 November 2017

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      Author Tags

      1. event forecasting
      2. hyper-local price
      3. optimization
      4. spatiotemporal data mining

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      • Department of Interior National Business Center

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      CIKM '17 Paper Acceptance Rate 171 of 855 submissions, 20%;
      Overall Acceptance Rate 1,861 of 8,427 submissions, 22%

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      • (2019)TITANProceedings of the 27th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems10.1145/3347146.3359381(329-338)Online publication date: 5-Nov-2019
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