Hacini Aliaâ
ABSTRACT
In recent decades, urbanization has seen a remarkable increase, particularly in agglomerates surrounded by rural areas. This phenomenon is developing to the detriment of agricultural land, especially in the Gharb area, which is one of the important food sources for Morocco. The "modeling of urban sprawl using the SLEUTH model" refects the urban dynamics of the cities of Kenitra and Mehdia in the year 2050 and quantifies in terms of surface area the perimeter that will be urbanized by nibbling on agricultural land. In order to do this, the modeling was based on a model input data preparation, a coarse, fine and final calibration procedure and a forecast simulation of urban sprawl between the current and the year 2050.
An analysis of the history of urban evolution has shown that the average annual spatial expansion rate (TESMA) is about 3.57% between 1990 and 2014. The analysis of the urban prediction here at 2050 gave a TESMA forecast of around 2.43%. The expansion shows a decline compared to the period from 1990 to 2014 but which will occupy an area that exceeds 10000 ha which will show a tripling of the current urban. The present situation is critical and requires the elaboration of a Master Plan for Urban Development, the protection of which will be a requirement.
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Index Terms
- Using the SLEUTH Model to Evaluated and Analyze the Impact of Urban Sprawl on Agricultural Land in the cities of Kenitra and Mehdia (MOROCCO)
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