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Volatility targeting strategy in S&P500

Published: 10 January 2019 Publication History

Abstract

This project used volatility targeting strategy and was constructed and processed on Python to design an optimal strategy that maximized the rate of return of the portfolios. According to Romain Perchet [2015], volatility targeting serves as a strategy that stabilizes between a risky asset and risk-free asset to keep the volatility at a constant level. The goal of which was achieved by forecasting the future return rate of S&P500 stock market based on its return rate in the past, using two approaches: GARCH model and standard deviation, namely, Equally Weighted Averages, with the volatility target of 10%. In the end, Sharpe Ratio, which was the average return rate of risk-free asset per unit of volatility, was used to calculate volatility, which proved that GARCH model was a better approach in volatility targeting strategy than standard deviation, due to volatility clustering.

References

[1]
Perchet, R, R. L. d. Carvolho, T. Heckel, P Moulin, "Predicting the success of volatility targeting strategies," The Journal of Alternative Investments, 2015.
[2]
Mandelbrot, B. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices." The Journal of Business, Vol. 36, No. 4 (1963), pp. 394--419.
[3]
Engle, R.F. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation." Econometrica, Vol. 50, No. 4 (1982), pp. 987--1007.
[4]
Bollerslev, T. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 69, No. 3 (1987), pp. 542--547.
[5]
Poon, S.H., C.W. Granger. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review." Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 41, No. 2 (2003), pp. 478--539.
[6]
Hallerbach, W.G. "A Proof of the Optimality of Volatility Weighting Over Time." The Journal of Investment Strategies, Vol. 1, No. 4 (2012), pp. 87--99.

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  1. Volatility targeting strategy in S&P500

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    IC4E '19: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on E-Education, E-Business, E-Management and E-Learning
    January 2019
    469 pages
    ISBN:9781450366021
    DOI:10.1145/3306500
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 10 January 2019

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    Author Tags

    1. GARCH model
    2. asset distribution
    3. constant volatility
    4. sharpe ratio
    5. volatility clustering

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