skip to main content
10.1145/3322640.3326710acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesicailConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

Supporting Discussions About Forensic Bayesian Networks Using Argumentation

Published: 17 June 2019 Publication History

Abstract

Bayesian networks (BNs) are powerful tools that are increasingly being used by forensic and legal experts to reason about the uncertain conclusions that can be inferred from the evidence in a case. Although in BN construction it is good practice to document the model itself, the importance of documenting design decisions has received little attention. Such decisions, including the (possibly conflicting) reasons behind them, are important for legal experts to understand and accept probabilistic models of cases. Moreover, when disagreements arise between domain experts involved in the construction of BNs, there are no systematic means to resolve such disagreements. Therefore, we propose an approach that allows domain experts to explicitly express and capture their reasons pro and con modelling decisions using argumentation, and that resolves their disagreements as much as possible. Our approach is based on a case study, in which the argumentation structure of an actual disagreement between two forensic BN experts is analysed.

References

[1]
N. Fenton and M. Neil. Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks. CRC Press, 2012.
[2]
F. Taroni, C.G. Aitken, P. Garbolino, and A. Biedermann. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science. Wiley, 2014.
[3]
N. Fenton, M. Neil, and D. Berger. Bayes and the law. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 3: 51--77, 2016.
[4]
B. Yet, Z.B. Perkins, N.R.M. Tai, and D.W.R. Marsh. Clinical evidence framework for Bayesian networks. Knowledge and Information Systems, 50(1): 117--143, 2017.
[5]
S. Modgil and H. Prakken. A general account of argumentation with preferences. Artificial Intelligence, 195: 316--397, 2013.
[6]
J. Keppens. On modelling non-probabilistic uncertainty in the likelihood ratio approach to evidential reasoning. Artificial Intelligence and Law, 22(3): 239--290, 2014.
[7]
H. Prakken. A new use case for argumentation support tools: supporting discussions of Bayesian analyses of complex criminal cases. Artificial Intelligence and Law.
[8]
F.V. Jensen and T.D. Nielsen. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Springer, 2nd ed., 2007.
[9]
D. Walton, C. Reed, and F. Macagno. Argumentation Schemes. Cambridge University Press, 2008.
[10]
P.M. Dung. On the acceptability of arguments and its fundamental role in nonmonotonic reasoning, logic programming and n-person games. Artificial Intelligence, 77(2): 321--357, 1995.
[11]
G. Doekhie. A Bayesian network for assigning probabilities on which finger left a mark. Master's thesis. University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2012.
[12]
R. Haraksim, D. Meuwly, G. Doekhie, P. Vergeer, and M. Sjerps. Assignment of the evidential value of a fingermark general pattern using a Bayesian network. In A. Brömme and C. Busch, eds., Proceedings of the 12th International Conference of the Biometrics Special Interest Group, volume 212, pages 99--109. GI, 2012.
[13]
V. Doshi. Validation of Bayesian networks with a case study on fingerprint general patterns. Master's thesis. Utrecht University, The Netherlands, 2013.
[14]
J. Pitchforth and K. Mengersen. A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian networks. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(1): 162--167, 2013.
[15]
S. Modgil and H. Prakken. Resolutions in structured argumentation. In B. Verheij, S. Woltran, and S. Szeider, eds., Computational Models of Argument: Proceedings of COMMA 2012, volume 245, pages 310--321. IOS Press, 2012.
[16]
F. Bex andS. Renooij. From arguments to constraints on a Bayesian network. In P. Baroni, T.F. Gordon, T. Scheffler, and M. Stede, eds., Computational Models of Argument: Proceedings of COMMA 2016, volume 287, pages 95--106. IOS press, 2016.
[17]
R. Wieten, F. Bex, H. Prakken, and S. Renooij. Exploiting causality in constructing Bayesian networks from legal arguments. In M. Palmirani, ed., Legal Knowledge and Information Systems. JURIX 2018: The Thirty-first Annual Conference, volume 313, pages 151--160. IOS Press, 2018.
[18]
F. Bex, S. Modgil, H. Prakken, and C.A. Reed. On logical specifications of the argument interchange format. Journal of Logic and Computation. 23(5): 951--989, 2013.
[19]
S.T. Timmer, J.-J.C. Meyer, H. Prakken, S. Renooij, and B. Verheij. A two-phase method for extracting explanatory arguments from Bayesian networks. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 80: 475--494, 2017.
[20]
J. Keppens. Argument diagram extraction from evidential Bayesian networks. Artificial Intelligence and Law, 20(2): 109--143, 2012.

Cited By

View all
  • (2022)Thirty years of Artificial Intelligence and Law: overviewsArtificial Intelligence and Law10.1007/s10506-022-09324-930:4(593-610)Online publication date: 6-Aug-2022
  • (2021)Information graphs and their use for Bayesian network graph constructionInternational Journal of Approximate Reasoning10.1016/j.ijar.2021.06.007Online publication date: Jun-2021
  • (2019)Constructing Bayesian Network Graphs from Labeled ArgumentsSymbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty10.1007/978-3-030-29765-7_9(99-110)Online publication date: 4-Sep-2019

Recommendations

Comments

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
ICAIL '19: Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law
June 2019
312 pages
ISBN:9781450367547
DOI:10.1145/3322640
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

Sponsors

In-Cooperation

  • Univ. of Montreal: University of Montreal
  • AAAI
  • IAAIL: Intl Asso for Artifical Intel & Law

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 17 June 2019

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Check for updates

Author Tags

  1. Bayesian networks
  2. argumentation support
  3. legal reasoning

Qualifiers

  • Research-article
  • Research
  • Refereed limited

Conference

ICAIL '19
Sponsor:

Acceptance Rates

Overall Acceptance Rate 69 of 169 submissions, 41%

Contributors

Other Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

  • Downloads (Last 12 months)7
  • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)1
Reflects downloads up to 08 Mar 2025

Other Metrics

Citations

Cited By

View all
  • (2022)Thirty years of Artificial Intelligence and Law: overviewsArtificial Intelligence and Law10.1007/s10506-022-09324-930:4(593-610)Online publication date: 6-Aug-2022
  • (2021)Information graphs and their use for Bayesian network graph constructionInternational Journal of Approximate Reasoning10.1016/j.ijar.2021.06.007Online publication date: Jun-2021
  • (2019)Constructing Bayesian Network Graphs from Labeled ArgumentsSymbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty10.1007/978-3-030-29765-7_9(99-110)Online publication date: 4-Sep-2019

View Options

Login options

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

PDF

eReader

View online with eReader.

eReader

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Share this Publication link

Share on social media