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Data-driven country safety monitoring terrorist attack prediction

Published: 15 January 2020 Publication History

Abstract

Terrorism is a key risk for prospective visitors of tourist destinations. This work reports on the analysis of past terrorist attack data, focusing on tourist-related attacks and attack types in Mediterranean EU area and the development of algorithms to predict terrorist attack risk levels. Data on attacks in 10 countries have been analyzed to quantify the threat level of tourism-related terrorism based on the data from 2000 to 2017 and formulate predictions for subsequent periods. Results show that predictions on potential target types can be derived with adequate accuracy. Such results are useful for initiating, shifting and validating active terrorism surveillance based on predicted attack and target types per country from real past data.

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Cited By

View all
  • (2021)Safe Travelling Period Recommendation to High Attack Risk European Destinations Based on Past Attack InformationBig Data and Social Media Analytics10.1007/978-3-030-67044-3_4(77-100)Online publication date: 6-Jul-2021
  • (2020)Counterterrorism for Cyber-Physical SpacesProceedings of the International Conference on Advanced Visual Interfaces10.1145/3399715.3399826(1-5)Online publication date: 2-Oct-2020
  • (2020)On recommending safe travel periods to high attack risk destinationsProceedings of the 12th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining10.1109/ASONAM49781.2020.9381391(854-861)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2020

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cover image ACM Conferences
ASONAM '19: Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining
August 2019
1228 pages
ISBN:9781450368681
DOI:10.1145/3341161
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

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Published: 15 January 2020

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Author Tags

  1. data analysis
  2. risk calculation
  3. safety perception
  4. terrorist attacks
  5. threat ranking

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ASONAM '19 Paper Acceptance Rate 41 of 286 submissions, 14%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 116 of 549 submissions, 21%

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Cited By

View all
  • (2021)Safe Travelling Period Recommendation to High Attack Risk European Destinations Based on Past Attack InformationBig Data and Social Media Analytics10.1007/978-3-030-67044-3_4(77-100)Online publication date: 6-Jul-2021
  • (2020)Counterterrorism for Cyber-Physical SpacesProceedings of the International Conference on Advanced Visual Interfaces10.1145/3399715.3399826(1-5)Online publication date: 2-Oct-2020
  • (2020)On recommending safe travel periods to high attack risk destinationsProceedings of the 12th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining10.1109/ASONAM49781.2020.9381391(854-861)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2020

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