skip to main content
10.1145/3347146.3359110acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesgisConference Proceedingsconference-collections
poster

20 Years of Mobility Modeling & Prediction: Trends, Shortcomings & Perspectives

Published: 05 November 2019 Publication History

Abstract

In this paper, we present the insights drawn from a comprehensive survey of human-mobility modeling research based on 1680 articles that can serve as a roadmap for research and practice in this area. Mobility modeling research has accelerated the advancement of several fields of studies such as urban planning, epidemic modeling, traffic engineering and contributed to the development of location-based services. However, while the application of mobility models in different domains has increased, the credibility of the research results has decreased. We highlight two significant shortfalls observed in our reviewed studies: (1) data-agnostic model selection resulting in a poor tradeoff between modeling accuracy vs. computational complexity, and (2) failure in identifying the source of empirical gains, due to adoption of erroneous validation methodologies. We also observe troubling trends with respect to the application of Markov models for modeling mobility, despite the questionable association between Markov processes and mobility dynamics. We offer the literature meta-data and the associated tools to the community in order to improve the reliability and credibility of human mobility modeling research.

References

[1]
Nurul Ain Amirrudin, Sharifah HS Ariffin, NNN Abd Malik, and N Effiyana Ghazali. 2013. User's mobility history-based mobility prediction in LTE femtocells network. In 2013 IEEE International RF and Microwave Conference (RFM). IEEE, 105--110.
[2]
Akinori Asahara, Kishiko Maruyama, Akiko Sato, and Kouichi Seto. 2011. Pedestrian-movement prediction based on mixed Markov-chain model. In GIS.
[3]
Daniel Ashbrook and Thad Starner. 2001. Learning Significant Locations and Predicting User Movement with GPS. In SEMWEB.
[4]
Daniel Ashbrook and Thad Starner. 2003. Using GPS to learn significant locations and predict movement across multiple users. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing 7 (2003), 275--286.
[5]
Mitra Baratchi, Nirvana Meratnia, Paul J. M. Havinga, Andrew K. Skidmore, and Bert A. G. Toxopeus. 2014. A hierarchical hidden semi-Markov model for modeling mobility data. In UbiComp.
[6]
Yohan Chon, Hyojeong Shin, Elmurod Talipov, and Hojung Cha. 2012. Evaluating mobility models for temporal prediction with high-granularity mobility data. In 2012 IEEE International Conference on Pervasive Computing and Communications. IEEE, 206--212.
[7]
Sébastien Gambs, Marc-Olivier Killijian, and Miguel Núñez del Prado Cortez. 2012. Next place prediction using mobility markov chains. In Proceedings of the First Workshop on Measurement, Privacy, and Mobility. ACM, 3.
[8]
Mario Gerla. 1999. IPv6 flow handoff in ad hoc wireless networks using mobility prediction.
[9]
Inria. 2012. PrivaMOv Dataset. https://projet.liris.cnrs.fr/privamov/project/. [Online; accessed 26-July-2018].
[10]
Juha K Laurila, Daniel Gatica-Perez, Imad Aad, Olivier Bornet, Trinh-Minh-Tri Do, Olivier Dousse, Julien Eberle, Markus Miettinen, et al. 2012. The mobile data challenge: Big data for mobile computing research. In Pervasive Computing.
[11]
Wesley Mathew, Ruben Raposo, and Bruno Martins. 2012. Predicting future locations with hidden Markov models. In UbiComp.
[12]
Anna Monreale, Fabio Pinelli, Roberto Trasarti, and Fosca Giannotti. 2009. WhereNext: a location predictor on trajectory pattern mining. In KDD.
[13]
Pubudu N. Pathirana, Andrey V. Savkin, and Sanjay Jha. 2003. Mobility modelling and trajectory prediction for cellular networks with mobile base stations. In MobiHoc.
[14]
Donald J. Patterson, Lin Liao, Dieter Fox, and Henry A. Kautz. 2003. Inferring High-Level Behavior from Low-Level Sensors. In UbiComp.
[15]
Wee-Seng Soh and Hyong S. Kim. 2003. QoS provisioning in cellular networks based on mobility prediction techniques. IEEE Communications Magazine 41 (2003), 86--92.
[16]
Chaoming Song, Zehui Qu, Nicholas Blumm, and Albert-László Barabási. 2010. Limits of predictability in human mobility. Science 327 5968 (2010), 1018--21.
[17]
William Su, Sung-Ju Lee, and Mario Gerla. 2001. Mobility prediction and routing in ad hoc wireless networks. Int. Journal of Network Management 11 (2001), 3--30.
[18]
Hongjun Wang, Zhen Yang, and Yingchun Shi. 2019. Next Location Prediction Based on an Adaboost-Markov Model of Mobile Users. Sensors 19, 6 (2019), 1475.
[19]
Xiao-Yong Yan, Xiao-Pu Han, Bing-Hong Wang, and Tao Zhou. 2013. Diversity of individual mobility patterns and emergence of aggregated scaling laws. Scientific reports 3 (2013), 2678.
[20]
Jie Yang, Jian Xu, Ming Xu, Ning Zheng, and Yu Chen. 2014. Predicting next location using a variable order Markov model. In Proceedings of the 5th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on GeoStreaming. ACM, 37--42.
[21]
Shunzheng Yu and Hisashi Kobayashi. 2003. A hidden semi-Markov model with missing data and multiple observation sequences for mobility tracking. Signal Processing 83 (2003), 235--250.
[22]
Yu Zheng, Xing Xie, and Wei-Ying Ma. 2010. Geolife: A collaborative social networking service among user, location and trajectory. IEEE Data Eng. Bull. 33, 2 (2010), 32--39.
[23]
Wanzheng Zhu, Chao Zhang, Shuochao Yao, Xiaobin Gao, and Jiawei Han. 2018. A Spherical Hidden Markov Model for Semantics-Rich Human Mobility Modeling. In Thirty-Second AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence.

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)A light-weight edge-enabled knowledge distillation technique for next location prediction of multitude transportation meansFuture Generation Computer Systems10.1016/j.future.2023.12.025154:C(45-58)Online publication date: 1-May-2024
  • (2022)Human Mobility Prediction with Calibration for Noisy TrajectoriesElectronics10.3390/electronics1120336211:20(3362)Online publication date: 18-Oct-2022
  • (2022)Constructing Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems for Travel Time Prediction With Deep Learning ApproachesIEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems10.1109/TITS.2022.314826923:9(16590-16599)Online publication date: Sep-2022
  • Show More Cited By

Index Terms

  1. 20 Years of Mobility Modeling & Prediction: Trends, Shortcomings & Perspectives

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM Conferences
    SIGSPATIAL '19: Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems
    November 2019
    648 pages
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must be honored. For all other uses, contact the Owner/Author.

    Sponsors

    Publisher

    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 05 November 2019

    Check for updates

    Author Tags

    1. literature review
    2. mobility modeling
    3. validation methodology

    Qualifiers

    • Poster
    • Research
    • Refereed limited

    Funding Sources

    • Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung

    Conference

    SIGSPATIAL '19
    Sponsor:

    Acceptance Rates

    SIGSPATIAL '19 Paper Acceptance Rate 34 of 161 submissions, 21%;
    Overall Acceptance Rate 257 of 1,238 submissions, 21%

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • Downloads (Last 12 months)11
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
    Reflects downloads up to 25 Feb 2025

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    Cited By

    View all
    • (2024)A light-weight edge-enabled knowledge distillation technique for next location prediction of multitude transportation meansFuture Generation Computer Systems10.1016/j.future.2023.12.025154:C(45-58)Online publication date: 1-May-2024
    • (2022)Human Mobility Prediction with Calibration for Noisy TrajectoriesElectronics10.3390/electronics1120336211:20(3362)Online publication date: 18-Oct-2022
    • (2022)Constructing Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems for Travel Time Prediction With Deep Learning ApproachesIEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems10.1109/TITS.2022.314826923:9(16590-16599)Online publication date: Sep-2022
    • (2022)Analysis of wireless network access logs for a hierarchical characterization of user mobilityJournal of King Saud University - Computer and Information Sciences10.1016/j.jksuci.2022.03.01434:6(2471-2487)Online publication date: Jun-2022
    • (2022)Investigating predictive model-based control to achieve reliable consistent multipath mmWave communicationComputer Communications10.1016/j.comcom.2022.07.011Online publication date: Jul-2022
    • (2021)Reliable Consistent Multipath mmWave CommunicationProceedings of the 24th International ACM Conference on Modeling, Analysis and Simulation of Wireless and Mobile Systems10.1145/3479239.3485684(149-158)Online publication date: 22-Nov-2021
    • (2021)Joint prediction of next location and travel time from urban vehicle trajectories using long short-term memory neural networksTransportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies10.1016/j.trc.2021.103114128(103114)Online publication date: Jul-2021
    • (2021)Nation-wide human mobility prediction based on graph neural networksApplied Intelligence10.1007/s10489-021-02645-3Online publication date: 19-Jul-2021

    View Options

    Login options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Figures

    Tables

    Media

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media