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Influenza Forecasting

Published: 01 July 2020 Publication History

Abstract

In the 2018-19 influenza season, between 37.4 and 42.9 million people in the United States experienced flu like symptoms. From that number, 431 to 647 thousand were hospitalized and 36400 to 61200 (most of them children and seniors) succumbed to the disease. Due to the annual mutation of the very many strands of the flu virus, new vaccines must be developed and administered every flu season. Therefore, the prediction of the rate of growth in reported infection cases of each strand of the flu is paramount to ensuring the correct supply of vaccines per strand. A great tool for making future predictions using existing data is Machine learning - specifically Neural Networks. eVision (Epidemic Vision) is a software using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks under research and development by Santa Clara University's EPIC (Ethical, Pragmatic, and Intelligent Computing) and Bioinnovation & Design labs to predict the trend of influenza cases throughout the flu season using data from the CDC, WHO, and Google Trends in order to help pharmaceuticals decide on the ramping up or down of their development of tester kits, vaccines, and medicines weeks in advance.

References

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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).2019a. Flu. (2019). https://www.cdc.gov/flu
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2019b. FluView. (2019). https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2019c. Preliminary In-Season 2018-2019 Burden Estimates. (2019). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
[4]
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2020. 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates. (2020). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
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Jessie R Chung, Melissa A Rolfes, Brendan Flannery, Pragati Prasad, Alissa O'Halloran, Shikha Garg, Alicia M Fry, James A Singleton, Manish Patel, and Carrie Reed. 2020. Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States during the 2018-2019 Influenza Season. Clinical Infectious Diseases (2020).
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A.F. et al. Dugas. 2012. Google flu trends: correlation with emergency department influenza rates and crowding metrics. Clinical Infectious Diseases 54 (2012), 463--469.
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Melissa A Rolfes et al. 2018. Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2017-2018 Influenza Season. Clinical Infectious Diseases 075 (2018).
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Mohebbi M. Patel R. et al. Ginsberg, J. 2009. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature 475 (2009), 1012--1014.
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Google. 2019. Google Flu Trends. (2019). https://www.google.org/flutrends/about
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Vernon J Lee, Zheng Jie Marc Ho, Ee Hui Goh, Harry Campbell, Cheryl Cohen, Vanessa Cozza, Julia Fitzner, Jorge Jara, Anand Krishnan, Joseph Bresee, and others. 2018. Advances in measuring influenza burden of disease. Influenza and other respiratory viruses 12, 1 (2018), 3--9.
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World Health Organization (WHO). 2018. 2018 Influenza (Seasonal) Fact sheets. (2018). https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)
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World Health Organization (WHO). 2019. FluNet. (2019). https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/flunet/en/

Cited By

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  • (2024)eVision: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Seasonal Trend Forecasting2024 16th Biomedical Engineering International Conference (BMEiCON)10.1109/BMEiCON64021.2024.10896280(1-6)Online publication date: 21-Nov-2024
  • (2022)eVision: Forecasting the spread of Tuberculosis in India with Deep Learning2022 International Conference on Computational Science and Computational Intelligence (CSCI)10.1109/CSCI58124.2022.00296(1663-1668)Online publication date: Dec-2022
  • (2022)Attempts at Enhancing eVision’s Influenza Forecasting Using Social Media2022 14th Biomedical Engineering International Conference (BMEiCON)10.1109/BMEiCON56653.2022.10012095(1-5)Online publication date: 10-Nov-2022
  • Show More Cited By

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cover image ACM Conferences
COMPASS '20: Proceedings of the 3rd ACM SIGCAS Conference on Computing and Sustainable Societies
June 2020
359 pages
ISBN:9781450371292
DOI:10.1145/3378393
Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must be honored. For all other uses, contact the Owner/Author.

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Publication History

Published: 01 July 2020

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Author Tags

  1. Flu
  2. Influenza
  3. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)
  4. Machine K@Learning
  5. Neural Networks
  6. Prediction

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Cited By

View all
  • (2024)eVision: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Seasonal Trend Forecasting2024 16th Biomedical Engineering International Conference (BMEiCON)10.1109/BMEiCON64021.2024.10896280(1-6)Online publication date: 21-Nov-2024
  • (2022)eVision: Forecasting the spread of Tuberculosis in India with Deep Learning2022 International Conference on Computational Science and Computational Intelligence (CSCI)10.1109/CSCI58124.2022.00296(1663-1668)Online publication date: Dec-2022
  • (2022)Attempts at Enhancing eVision’s Influenza Forecasting Using Social Media2022 14th Biomedical Engineering International Conference (BMEiCON)10.1109/BMEiCON56653.2022.10012095(1-5)Online publication date: 10-Nov-2022
  • (2021)Interplay of Influenza A/B Subtypes and COVID-192021 4th International Conference on Bio-Engineering for Smart Technologies (BioSMART)10.1109/BioSMART54244.2021.9677858(1-5)Online publication date: 8-Dec-2021
  • (2021)Expanding eVision’s Granularity of Influenza ForecastingWireless Mobile Communication and Healthcare10.1007/978-3-030-70569-5_14(227-243)Online publication date: 21-Feb-2021
  • (2020)Google Trends Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data)10.1109/BigData50022.2020.9377852(3438-3446)Online publication date: 10-Dec-2020
  • (2020)eVision: Influenza Forecasting Using CDC, WHO, and Google Trends Data2020 IEEE / ITU International Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Good (AI4G)10.1109/AI4G50087.2020.9311072(38-45)Online publication date: 21-Sep-2020

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