Maya Stoimenova-Minova
ABSTRACT
The main air pollutant all around the world is particulate matter PM10. This is particulate matter smaller than 10 microns. In the human body, harmful particles lead to serious health problems, causing chronic lung disease, asthma, bronchitis, and heart failure. Statistics for Bulgaria show that an average of 66-68% of mortality is due to exactly such cardiovascular disease. This paper applies the powerful Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method to analyze data about PM10 air pollution for the city of Smolyan. The modeling procedure found that depending on the number of observations, the obtained models approximate the actual data to a different degree. The study uses mean daily measurements for the period from 1 January 2010 to 27 April 2018. The obtained results show that the best model approximates the actual measured values of PM10 up to 87%. The selected best CART model is applied to forecast future pollution 3 days ahead.
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Index Terms
- PM10 Prediction Using CART Method Depending on the Number of Observations
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