skip to main content
10.1145/3437963.3441785acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PageswsdmConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

Predicting Crowd Flows via Pyramid Dilated Deeper Spatial-temporal Network

Published: 08 March 2021 Publication History

Abstract

Predicting crowd flows is crucial for urban planning, traffic management and public safety. However, predicting crowd flows is not trivial because of three challenges: 1) highly heterogeneous mobility data collected by various services; 2) complex spatio-temporal correlations of crowd flows, including multi-scale spatial correlations along with non-linear temporal correlations. 3) diversity in long-term temporal patterns. To tackle these challenges, we proposed an end-to-end architecture, called pyramid dilated spatial-temporal network (PDSTN), to effectively learn spatial-temporal representations of crowd flows with a novel attention mechanism. Specifically, PDSTN employs the ConvLSTM structure to identify complex features that capture spatial-temporal correlations simultaneously, and then stacks multiple ConvLSTM units for deeper feature extraction. For further improving the spatial learning ability, a pyramid dilated residual network is introduced by adopting several dilated residual ConvLSTM networks to extract multi-scale spatial information. In addition, a novel attention mechanism, which considers both long-term periodicity and the shift in periodicity, is designed to study diverse temporal patterns. Extensive experiments were conducted on three highly heterogeneous real-world mobility datasets to illustrate the effectiveness of PDSTN beyond the state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, PDSTN provides intuitive interpretation into the prediction.

References

[1]
Dzmitry Bahdanau, Kyunghyun Cho, and Yoshua Bengio. 2014. Neural machine translation by jointly learning to align and translate. arXiv preprint arXiv:1409.0473 (2014).
[2]
George EP Box, Gwilym M Jenkins, Gregory C Reinsel, and Greta M Ljung. 2015. Time series analysis: forecasting and control .John Wiley & Sons.
[3]
Jingyuan Chen, Hanwang Zhang, Xiangnan He, Liqiang Nie, Wei Liu, and Tat-Seng Chua. 2017a. Attentive collaborative filtering: Multimedia recommendation with item-and component-level attention. In Proceedings of the 40th International ACM SIGIR conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval . 335--344.
[4]
Long Chen, Hanwang Zhang, Jun Xiao, Liqiang Nie, Jian Shao, Wei Liu, and Tat-Seng Chua. 2017b. Sca-cnn: Spatial and channel-wise attention in convolutional networks for image captioning. In Proceedings of the IEEE conference on computer vision and pattern recognition. 5659--5667.
[5]
Jie Feng, Yong Li, Chao Zhang, Funing Sun, Fanchao Meng, Ang Guo, and Depeng Jin. 2018. Deepmove: Predicting human mobility with attentional recurrent networks. In Proceedings of the 2018 world wide web conference. 1459--1468.
[6]
David Harris and Sarah Harris. 2010. Digital design and computer architecture .Morgan Kaufmann.
[7]
Sergey Ioffe and Christian Szegedy. 2015. Batch normalization: Accelerating deep network training by reducing internal covariate shift. arXiv preprint arXiv:1502.03167 (2015).
[8]
Johansen and Soren. 1991. Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, Vol. 59, 6 (1991), 1551.
[9]
Yiannis Kamarianakis and Poulicos Prastacos. 2003. Forecasting traffic flow conditions in an urban network: Comparison of multivariate and univariate approaches. Transportation Research Record, Vol. 1857, 1 (2003), 74--84.
[10]
Jintao Ke, Hongyu Zheng, Hai Yang, and Xiqun Michael Chen. 2017. Short-term forecasting of passenger demand under on-demand ride services: A spatio-temporal deep learning approach. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 85 (2017), 591--608.
[11]
Diederik P Kingma and Jimmy Ba. 2014. Adam: A method for stochastic optimization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.6980 (2014).
[12]
Yann LeCun, Yoshua Bengio, and Geoffrey Hinton. 2015. Deep learning. nature, Vol. 521, 7553 (2015), 436.
[13]
Hao Li, Zheng Xu, Gavin Taylor, Christoph Studer, and Tom Goldstein. 2018. Visualizing the loss landscape of neural nets. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. 6389--6399.
[14]
Ziqian Lin, Jie Feng, Ziyang Lu, Yong Li, and Depeng Jin. 2019. DeepSTN
[15]
: Context-aware Spatial-Temporal Neural Network for Crowd Flow Prediction in Metropolis. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 33. 1020--1027.
[16]
Marco Lippi, Matteo Bertini, and Paolo Frasconi. 2013. Short-term traffic flow forecasting: An experimental comparison of time-series analysis and supervised learning. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 14, 2 (2013), 871--882.
[17]
Jun Liu, Gang Wang, Ping Hu, Ling-Yu Duan, and Alex C Kot. 2017. Global context-aware attention LSTM networks for 3D action recognition. In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition . 1647--1656.
[18]
Lingbo Liu, Jiajie Zhen, Guanbin Li, Geng Zhan, and Liang Lin. 2019. ACFM: A Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Network for Traffic Prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1909.02902 (2019).
[19]
Congcong Miao, Ziyan Luo, Fengzhu Zeng, and Jilong Wang. 2020. Predicting Human Mobility via Attentive Convolutional Network. In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining . 438--446.
[20]
Volodymyr Mnih, Nicolas Heess, Alex Graves, et almbox. 2014. Recurrent models of visual attention. In Advances in neural information processing systems. 2204--2212.
[21]
CK Moorthy and BG Ratcliffe. 1988. Short term traffic forecasting using time series methods. Transportation planning and technology, Vol. 12, 1 (1988), 45--56.
[22]
Luis Moreira-Matias, Joao Gama, Michel Ferreira, Joao Mendes-Moreira, and Luis Damas. 2013. Predicting taxi--passenger demand using streaming data. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 14, 3 (2013), 1393--1402.
[23]
Vinod Nair and Geoffrey E Hinton. 2010. Rectified linear units improve restricted boltzmann machines. In Proceedings of the 27th international conference on machine learning (ICML-10). 807--814.
[24]
Liefeng Rong, Hao Cheng, and Jie Wang. 2017. Taxi call prediction for online taxicab platforms. In Asia-Pacific Web (APWeb) and Web-Age Information Management (WAIM) Joint Conference on Web and Big Data. Springer, 214--224.
[25]
Hongyu Sun, Henry Liu, Heng Xiao, Rachel He, and Bin Ran. [n.d.]. Use of Local Linear Regression Model for Short-Term Traffic Forecasting. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1836 ( [n.,d.]), 143--150.
[26]
Yongxin Tong, Yuqiang Chen, Zimu Zhou, Lei Chen, Jie Wang, Qiang Yang, Jieping Ye, and Weifeng Lv. 2017. The simpler the better: a unified approach to predicting original taxi demands based on large-scale online platforms. In Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining. ACM, 1653--1662.
[27]
Vivek Veeriah, Naifan Zhuang, and Guo-Jun Qi. 2015. Differential recurrent neural networks for action recognition. In Proceedings of the IEEE international conference on computer vision. 4041--4049.
[28]
Dong Wang, Wei Cao, Jian Li, and Jieping Ye. 2017. DeepSD: supply-demand prediction for online car-hailing services using deep neural networks. In 2017 IEEE 33rd International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE). IEEE, 243--254.
[29]
Paul J Werbos et almbox. 1990. Backpropagation through time: what it does and how to do it. Proc. IEEE, Vol. 78, 10 (1990), 1550--1560.
[30]
Billy M Williams and Lester A Hoel. 2003. Modeling and forecasting vehicular traffic flow as a seasonal ARIMA process: Theoretical basis and empirical results. Journal of transportation engineering, Vol. 129, 6 (2003), 664--672.
[31]
Chun-Hsin Wu, Jan-Ming Ho, and Der-Tsai Lee. 2004. Travel-time prediction with support vector regression. IEEE transactions on intelligent transportation systems, Vol. 5, 4 (2004), 276--281.
[32]
Fei Wu, Hongjian Wang, and Zhenhui Li. 2016. Interpreting traffic dynamics using ubiquitous urban data. In Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems. ACM, 69.
[33]
SHI Xingjian, Zhourong Chen, Hao Wang, Dit-Yan Yeung, Wai-Kin Wong, and Wang-chun Woo. 2015. Convolutional LSTM network: A machine learning approach for precipitation nowcasting. In Advances in neural information processing systems. 802--810.
[34]
Ziru Xu, Yunbo Wang, Mingsheng Long, and Jianmin Wang. 2018. PredCNN: Predictive Learning with Cascade Convolutions. In Twenty-Seventh International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence IJCAI-18.
[35]
Huaxiu Yao, Xianfeng Tang, Hua Wei, Guanjie Zheng, and Zhenhui Li. 2019. Revisiting spatial-temporal similarity: A deep learning framework for traffic prediction. In AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence .
[36]
Huaxiu Yao, Fei Wu, Jintao Ke, Xianfeng Tang, Yitian Jia, Siyu Lu, Pinghua Gong, Jieping Ye, and Zhenhui Li. 2018. Deep multi-view spatial-temporal network for taxi demand prediction. In Thirty-Second AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence .
[37]
Fisher Yu and Vladlen Koltun. 2015. Multi-scale context aggregation by dilated convolutions. arXiv preprint arXiv:1511.07122 (2015).
[38]
Rose Yu, Yaguang Li, Cyrus Shahabi, Ugur Demiryurek, and Yan Liu. 2017. Deep learning: A generic approach for extreme condition traffic forecasting. In Proceedings of the 2017 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining. SIAM, 777--785.
[39]
Junbo Zhang, Yu Zheng, and Dekang Qi. 2017. Deep spatio-temporal residual networks for citywide crowd flows prediction. In Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence .
[40]
Junbo Zhang, Yu Zheng, Dekang Qi, Ruiyuan Li, and Xiuwen Yi. 2016. DNN-based prediction model for spatio-temporal data. In Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems . ACM, 92.
[41]
Jiangchuan Zheng and Lionel M Ni. 2013. Time-dependent trajectory regression on road networks via multi-task learning. In Twenty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence .
[42]
Lei Zheng, Chun-Ta Lu, Lifang He, Sihong Xie, Huang He, Chaozhuo Li, Vahid Noroozi, Bowen Dong, and S Yu Philip. 2019. MARS: Memory attention-aware recommender system. In 2019 IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA). IEEE, 11--20.
[43]
Xian Zhou, Yanyan Shen, Yanmin Zhu, and Linpeng Huang. 2018. Predicting multi-step citywide passenger demands using attention-based neural networks. In Proceedings of the Eleventh ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining. 736--744.
[44]
Ali Zonoozi, Jung-jae Kim, Xiao-Li Li, and Gao Cong. 2018. Periodic-CRN: A Convolutional Recurrent Model for Crowd Density Prediction with Recurring Periodic Patterns. In IJCAI. 3732--3738.
[45]
Daniel Zoran, Mike Chrzanowski, Po-Sen Huang, Sven Gowal, Alex Mott, and Pushmeet Kohl. 2019. Towards Robust Image Classification Using Sequential Attention Models. arXiv preprint arXiv:1912.02184 (2019).

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)Tucker Decomposition-Enhanced Dynamic Graph Convolutional Networks for Crowd Flows PredictionACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology10.1145/370611616:1(1-19)Online publication date: 2-Dec-2024
  • (2023)A Survey on Graph Representation Learning MethodsACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology10.1145/363351815:1(1-55)Online publication date: 28-Nov-2023
  • (2022)ESC-GANProceedings of the Fifteenth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining10.1145/3488560.3498461(1347-1356)Online publication date: 11-Feb-2022
  • Show More Cited By

Recommendations

Comments

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
WSDM '21: Proceedings of the 14th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining
March 2021
1192 pages
ISBN:9781450382977
DOI:10.1145/3437963
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

Sponsors

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 08 March 2021

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Check for updates

Author Tags

  1. attention mechanism
  2. crowd flow prediction
  3. mobility data
  4. spatial-temporal modeling

Qualifiers

  • Research-article

Funding Sources

  • National Key Research and Development Program of China

Conference

WSDM '21

Acceptance Rates

Overall Acceptance Rate 498 of 2,863 submissions, 17%

Upcoming Conference

Contributors

Other Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

  • Downloads (Last 12 months)28
  • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)1
Reflects downloads up to 02 Mar 2025

Other Metrics

Citations

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)Tucker Decomposition-Enhanced Dynamic Graph Convolutional Networks for Crowd Flows PredictionACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology10.1145/370611616:1(1-19)Online publication date: 2-Dec-2024
  • (2023)A Survey on Graph Representation Learning MethodsACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology10.1145/363351815:1(1-55)Online publication date: 28-Nov-2023
  • (2022)ESC-GANProceedings of the Fifteenth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining10.1145/3488560.3498461(1347-1356)Online publication date: 11-Feb-2022
  • (2022)Translating Human Mobility Forecasting through Natural Language GenerationProceedings of the Fifteenth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining10.1145/3488560.3498387(1224-1233)Online publication date: 11-Feb-2022

View Options

Login options

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

PDF

eReader

View online with eReader.

eReader

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Share this Publication link

Share on social media