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Tariffs Forecasting Based on Wavelet ARIMA Model

Published: 17 May 2021 Publication History

Abstract

It is important to adopt a scientific and effective method to forecast tariffs. Using the tariff data of China from January 2014 to July 2019, the tariffs were predicted and analyzed based on the wavelet ARIMA model. Firstly, multi-scale wavelet decomposition of tariff time series is carried out, and the appropriate decomposition scale is determined and reconstructed to obtain the filtered denoising sequence. Further, the appropriate ARIMA model is established for the denoising sequence and predicted. The results show that the wavelet ARIMA model has smaller prediction error and higher precision than the conventional ARIMA model, and has good application value in the prediction of time series data.

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        cover image ACM Other conferences
        CONF-CDS 2021: The 2nd International Conference on Computing and Data Science
        January 2021
        1142 pages
        ISBN:9781450389570
        DOI:10.1145/3448734
        Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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        Association for Computing Machinery

        New York, NY, United States

        Publication History

        Published: 17 May 2021

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        Author Tags

        1. ARIMA model
        2. Tariffs
        3. Tax forecasting
        4. Wavelet ARIMA model

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