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Statistical Analysis on COVID-19 Based on SIR Model

Published: 22 June 2021 Publication History

Abstract

This article analyzes global COVID-19 from a statistical perspective. Based on SIR Model, the rate of infectivity and recovery in each country are calculated, which are used to be a clustering basis. Thus, 20 selected countries are divided into 3 clusters. The article also studies how the dynamics would change when adding noise to parameters and give some policies and solutions based on two situations. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the infection rate plays a more significant role in outcomes.

References

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"WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19—11 March 2020". World Health Organization. 11 March 2020. Retrieved 11 March 2020.
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"COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)". ArcGIS. Johns Hopkins University. Retrieved 9 August 2020.
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Kermack, W. O.; McKendrick, A. G. (1927). "A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics". Proceedings of the Royal Society A. 115 (772): 700–721. Bibcode:1927RSPSA.115.700K.
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Beckley, Ross; Weatherspoon, Cametria; Alexander, Michael; Chandler, Marissa; Johnson, Anthony; Batt, Ghan S. (2013). "Modeling epidemics with differential equations" (PDF). Tennessee State University Internal Report. Retrieved July 19, 2020.
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Yang, Wuyue; Zhang, Dongyan; Peng, Liangrong; Zhuge, Changjing; Liu, Liu (2020). "Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China". arXiv:2003.05666v1
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"China opens more online exhibitions amid virus outbreak". ECNS.cn. Archived from the original on 31 January 2020. Retrieved 5 February 2020.

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  • (2022)Modular probabilistic models via algebraic effectsProceedings of the ACM on Programming Languages10.1145/35476356:ICFP(381-410)Online publication date: 31-Aug-2022

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ICCBB '20: Proceedings of the 2020 4th International Conference on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
December 2020
80 pages
ISBN:9781450388443
DOI:10.1145/3449258
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 22 June 2021

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Author Tags

  1. COVID-19
  2. Cluster analysis
  3. SIR Model

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  • (2022)Modular probabilistic models via algebraic effectsProceedings of the ACM on Programming Languages10.1145/35476356:ICFP(381-410)Online publication date: 31-Aug-2022

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