skip to main content
10.1145/3493700.3493767acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagescomadConference Proceedingsconference-collections
tutorial

Uncertainty Quantification 360: A Hands-on Tutorial

Published: 08 January 2022 Publication History

Abstract

This tutorial presents an open source Python package (https://github.com/IBM/UQ360) named Uncertainty Quantification 360 (UQ360), a toolkit that provides a broad range of capabilities for quantifying, evaluating, improving, and communicating uncertainty in the AI application development lifecycle. We will first introduce the concepts in uncertainty quantification through an interactive experience (http://uq360.mybluemix.net) followed by use cases with different quantification algorithms and evaluation metrics. The hands-on experience gained from tutorial will aid researchers and developers in producing and evaluating high-quality uncertainties from AI models in an efficient manner.

References

[1]
Umang Bhatt, Javier Antorán, Yunfeng Zhang, Q. Vera Liao, Prasanna Sattigeri, Riccardo Fogliato, Gabrielle Gauthier Melançon, Ranganath Krishnan, Jason Stanley, Omesh Tickoo, Lama Nachman, Rumi Chunara, Madhulika Srikumar, Adrian Weller, and Alice Xiang. 2021. Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty. In Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society.
[2]
Charles Blundell, Julien Cornebise, Koray Kavukcuoglu, and Daan Wierstra. 2015. Weight Uncertainty in Neural Network. In Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning(Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, Vol. 37), Francis Bach and David Blei (Eds.). PMLR, Lille, France, 1613–1622. http://proceedings.mlr.press/v37/blundell15.html
[3]
Tongfei Chen, Jirí Navrátil, Vijay Iyengar, and Karthikeyan Shanmugam. 2019. Confidence scoring using whitebox meta-models with linear classifier probes. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. 1467–1475.
[4]
Benjamin Elder, Matthew Arnold, Anupama Murthi, and Jiri Navratil. 2021. Learning Prediction Intervals for Model Performance. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence.
[5]
Michael Fernandes, Logan Walls, Sean Munson, Jessica Hullman, and Matthew Kay. 2018. Uncertainty displays using quantile dotplots or cdfs improve transit decision-making. In Proceedings of the 2018 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. 144.
[6]
Soumya Ghosh, William T. Stephenson, Tin D. Nguyen, Sameer Deshpande, and Tamara Broderick. 2020. Approximate Cross-Validation for Structured Models. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 33.
[7]
Soumya Ghosh, Jiayu Yao, and Finale Doshi-Velez. 2019. Model Selection in Bayesian Neural Networks via Horseshoe Priors. Journal of Machine Learning Research 20, 182 (2019), 1–46.
[8]
Alex Kendall and Yarin Gal. 2017. What uncertainties do we need in Bayesian deep learning for computer vision?. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 30. 5580–5590.
[9]
Roger Koenker and Gilbert Bassett, Jr.1978. Regression Quantiles. Econometrica 46, 1 (Jan. 1978), 33–50.
[10]
Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini, Gregory Cooper, and Milos Hauskrecht. 2015. Obtaining well calibrated probabilities using Bayesian binning. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 29.
[11]
Jiri Navratil, Matthew Arnold, and Benjamin Elder. 2020. Uncertainty Prediction for Deep Sequential Regression Using Meta Models. arxiv:2007.01350 [cs.LG]
[12]
Jiri Navratil, Benjamin Elder, Matthew Arnold, Soumya Ghosh, and Prasanna Sattigeri. 2021. Uncertainty Characteristics Curves: A Systematic Assessment of Prediction Intervals. arxiv:2106.00858 [cs.LG]
[13]
John C. Platt. 1999. Probabilistic outputs for support vector machines and comparisons to regularized likelihood methods. In Advances in Large Margin Classifiers. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 61–74.
[14]
Carl Edward Rasmussen and Christopher K. I. Williams. 2006. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[15]
Jayaraman J Thiagarajan, Bindya Venkatesh, Prasanna Sattigeri, and Peer-Timo Bremer. 2020. Building calibrated deep models via uncertainty matching with auxiliary interval predictors. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 34. 6005–6012.
[16]
Bianca Zadrozny and Charles Elkan. 2001. Obtaining calibrated probability estimates from decision trees and naive Bayesian classifiers. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning. 609–616.
[17]
Yunfeng Zhang, Q Vera Liao, and Rachel KE Bellamy. 2020. Effect of confidence and explanation on accuracy and trust calibration in AI-assisted decision making. In Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency. 295–305.

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)Can machine-learning algorithms improve upon classical palaeoenvironmental reconstruction models?Climate of the Past10.5194/cp-20-2373-202420:10(2373-2398)Online publication date: 24-Oct-2024
  • (2024)Uncertainty-Quantified Neurosymbolic AI for Open Set Recognition in Network Intrusion DetectionMILCOM 2024 - 2024 IEEE Military Communications Conference (MILCOM)10.1109/MILCOM61039.2024.10773953(13-18)Online publication date: 28-Oct-2024
  • (2024)TrustML: A Python package for computing the trustworthiness of ML modelsSoftwareX10.1016/j.softx.2024.10174026(101740)Online publication date: May-2024
  • Show More Cited By

Recommendations

Comments

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
CODS-COMAD '22: Proceedings of the 5th Joint International Conference on Data Science & Management of Data (9th ACM IKDD CODS and 27th COMAD)
January 2022
357 pages
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

Sponsors

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 08 January 2022

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Check for updates

Author Tags

  1. AI
  2. Opensource
  3. Trust
  4. Uncertainty Quantification

Qualifiers

  • Tutorial
  • Research
  • Refereed limited

Conference

CODS-COMAD 2022
Sponsor:

Contributors

Other Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

  • Downloads (Last 12 months)52
  • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)9
Reflects downloads up to 03 Mar 2025

Other Metrics

Citations

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)Can machine-learning algorithms improve upon classical palaeoenvironmental reconstruction models?Climate of the Past10.5194/cp-20-2373-202420:10(2373-2398)Online publication date: 24-Oct-2024
  • (2024)Uncertainty-Quantified Neurosymbolic AI for Open Set Recognition in Network Intrusion DetectionMILCOM 2024 - 2024 IEEE Military Communications Conference (MILCOM)10.1109/MILCOM61039.2024.10773953(13-18)Online publication date: 28-Oct-2024
  • (2024)TrustML: A Python package for computing the trustworthiness of ML modelsSoftwareX10.1016/j.softx.2024.10174026(101740)Online publication date: May-2024
  • (2024)Assessing and implementing trustworthy AI across multiple dimensionsEthics in Online AI-based Systems10.1016/B978-0-443-18851-0.00001-9(229-257)Online publication date: 2024
  • (2024)A review of predictive uncertainty estimation with machine learningArtificial Intelligence Review10.1007/s10462-023-10698-857:4Online publication date: 18-Mar-2024
  • (2024)Trustworthy machine learning in the context of security and privacyInternational Journal of Information Security10.1007/s10207-024-00813-323:3(2287-2314)Online publication date: 3-Apr-2024
  • (2023)Lowering the computational barrier: Partially Bayesian neural networks for transparency in medical imaging AIFrontiers in Computer Science10.3389/fcomp.2023.10711745Online publication date: 15-Feb-2023
  • (2023)Understanding Uncertainty: How Lay Decision-makers Perceive and Interpret Uncertainty in Human-AI Decision MakingProceedings of the 28th International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces10.1145/3581641.3584033(379-396)Online publication date: 27-Mar-2023
  • (2022)Uncertainty-Based Rejection in Machine Learning: Implications for Model Development and InterpretabilityElectronics10.3390/electronics1103039611:3(396)Online publication date: 28-Jan-2022
  • (2021)Reputational Risk Associated with Big Data Research and Development: An Interdisciplinary PerspectiveSustainability10.3390/su1316928013:16(9280)Online publication date: 18-Aug-2021

View Options

Login options

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

PDF

eReader

View online with eReader.

eReader

HTML Format

View this article in HTML Format.

HTML Format

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Share this Publication link

Share on social media