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Research on the Spread and Response Strategies of the New Crown Epidemic Based on Python Simulation Technology and SEIRS Model

Published: 25 August 2022 Publication History

Abstract

Under such severe circumstances, accurately predicting the development trend of the epidemic is of great significance for subsequent intervention and control. This paper proposes an improved SEIRS dynamic model based on the infectious disease prediction model (SEIR model), which can accurately predict the development trend of the new coronavirus pneumonia. First, the Python simulation technology combined with the SEIRS model was used to predict the spread of Wuhan in the 40 days since the outbreak, and compared with the real data in Wuhan. After fully verifying the correctness and applicability of the model, the model was applied to Shanghai. Next, use Python simulation technology to predict the spread and end time of the epidemic in Shanghai, and set different control intensities by changing the parameter, and analyze the impact of different control start times and different control intensities on the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Finally, the experimental results are analyzed to propose corresponding epidemic prevention and control measures, and the model in this paper is extended to a wider range of application scenarios.

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ICVARS '22: Proceedings of the 2022 6th International Conference on Virtual and Augmented Reality Simulations
March 2022
119 pages
ISBN:9781450387330
DOI:10.1145/3546607
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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Association for Computing Machinery

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Publication History

Published: 25 August 2022

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Author Tags

  1. Coronavirus disease
  2. Epidemic prevention and control
  3. Inflection point
  4. SEIRS kinetic model
  5. Simulation prediction
  6. System

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