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Credit Risk Models using Rule-Based Methods and Machine-Learning Algorithms

Published: 30 March 2023 Publication History

Abstract

This study applies machine-learning techniques and rule-based methods to construct nonlinear nonparametric models to forecast retail consumer and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) credit risk. By combining customer transactions and enterprise data from 2018 to 2020 sampled from a major business district in the People’s Republic of China, forecasts were constructed that significantly improved the classification rates of customer and enterprise delinquencies and defaults. Moreover, the time-series patterns of the estimated delinquency rates and credit scores over multiple dimensions produced by this model suggest that aggregated credit risk analytics may have important applications in forecasting systemic risk, which might shed some light on obtaining prospective insights regarding consumer credit that can be gleaned from historical data especially pandemic period.

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    CSAI '22: Proceedings of the 2022 6th International Conference on Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence
    December 2022
    341 pages
    ISBN:9781450397773
    DOI:10.1145/3577530
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

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    Published: 30 March 2023

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    Author Tags

    1. 99-00
    2. Credit Score 2021 MSC: 00-01
    3. Credit risk model
    4. Machine Learning
    5. Rule-based

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    View all
    • (2024)UUTD-SVM: A Framework for Understanding Unstructured Tax Documents Utilizing RPA and SVM Methodology2024 6th International Conference on Natural Language Processing (ICNLP)10.1109/ICNLP60986.2024.10692771(169-174)Online publication date: 22-Mar-2024
    • (2024)The Application of Big Data and AI Analytics in Rating Industrial and Smart Manufacturing Districts: Challenges and Opportunities2024 3rd International Conference on Big Data, Information and Computer Network (BDICN)10.1109/BDICN62775.2024.00020(70-78)Online publication date: 12-Jan-2024
    • (2023)Modeling and Analysis of the Fuzzy-Fractional Chaotic Financial System Using the Extended He–Mohand Algorithm in a Fuzzy-Caputo SenseInternational Journal of Intelligent Systems10.1155/2023/30288242023Online publication date: 1-Jan-2023
    • (2023)Detection of Financial Fraudulent Activities with Machine Learning:A Case Study of Detecting Potential Tax and Invoice FraudProceedings of the 2023 7th International Conference on Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence10.1145/3638584.3638669(33-39)Online publication date: 8-Dec-2023

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