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A Method for the Reliability Prediction of Wind Power System based on Generation-Load Balance

Published: 14 March 2023 Publication History

Abstract

Wind power is safe and can be developed and utilized sustainability. It is one of the new energy power generation methods to deal with the depletion of fossil energy and the pollution of thermal power and nuclear power. However, the randomness of natural wind is large, which brings challenges to the safe operation of wind power system and the grid connection of wind energy. Reliability prediction is an effective method to improve the safe operation ability of wind power system. Therefore, this paper proposes a prediction and analysis method based on the risk and reliability of wind power system. Through a set of historical wind turbine power generation and power load data, the balance relationship between wind power generation and load is obtained through prediction; From the perspective of balance between power generation and load, the load demand of the next year is predicted. Finally, an example is simulated, and the results are compared with the real-time data of the wind farm. The results of simulation and actual data verify the effectiveness of this method, which shows that the method proposed in this paper can effectively predict the power load demand and the reliability of wind power system.

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        cover image ACM Other conferences
        ACAI '22: Proceedings of the 2022 5th International Conference on Algorithms, Computing and Artificial Intelligence
        December 2022
        770 pages
        ISBN:9781450398336
        DOI:10.1145/3579654
        Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

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        Publication History

        Published: 14 March 2023

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        Author Tags

        1. Wind power system
        2. output prediction
        3. probability distribution
        4. reliability analysis
        5. wind turbine loss

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