Adirek Vajrapatkul
ABSTRACT
This study aims to incorporate the Value at Risk (VaR) with ARCH family models, which are widely used for measuring risk, to express values that are easier to comprehend. The gold price data used for estimating the model and calculating VaR, covering the time period between February 15th, 2018, and February 14th, 2023, has been obtained from the Nasdaq website. The model evaluation based on the significance of parameters, AIC value, and model properties leads to the conclusion that EGARCH (1,1) is an appropriate model. The model estimation indicates that the gold return is sensitive to good news. After obtaining conditional variance, VaR was calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval, and the result showed that most of the time, gold returns fall within this interval.
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Index Terms
- Volatility and Value at Risk of Gold Return
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