ABSTRACT
This study aims to identify the dynamic interplay between the Baht/USD exchange rate, US discount rate, and Stock Exchange of Thailand index, by utilizing the vector error correction model. Utilizing daily data from 04/01/2017 to 14/07/2021, obtained from the Bank of Thailand website, the empirical evidence reveals a long-run relationship between the Baht/USD exchange rate, US discount rate, and Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results indicate bidirectional short-run relationships between these variables. These findings provide governments and investors with a valuable insight into the interplay between these variables, enabling them to plan effective investment strategies to reduce risk and maximize returns.
- L. Suyuan and A. Khurshid, “The effect of interest rate on investment; Empirical evidence of Jiangsu Province, China,” Journal of International Studies, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 81–90, 2015, doi: 10.14254/2071-8330.2015/8-1/7.Google ScholarCross Ref
- S. Mushtaq and A. S. Danish, “Effect of interest rate on economic performance: evidence from Islamic and non-Islamic economies,” Mushtaq and Siddiqui Financial Innovation, vol. 2, no. 9, pp. 1–14, 2016.Google Scholar
- A. O. Ilugbemi, “Effect of Interest Rates on Deposit Money Banks’ Profitability in Nigeria,” SARJBM, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 37–43, Aug. 2020, doi: 10.36346/sarjams.2020.v02i04.001.Google ScholarCross Ref
- M. Iacoviello and G. Navarro, “Foreign effects of higher U.S. interest rates,” Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 95, pp. 232–250, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.06.012.Google ScholarCross Ref
- R. A. De Santis and S. Zimic, “Interest rates and foreign spillovers,” European Economic Review, vol. 144, p. 104043, May 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104043.Google ScholarCross Ref
- M. Ehrmann, M. Fratzscher, and R. Rigobon, “Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets And Exchange Rates Measuring International Financial Transmission,” European Central Bank, Working Paper Series No. 452, 2005. Accessed: Feb. 08, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp452.pdfGoogle Scholar
- S. Y. Al-Abdallah and N. I. A. ALjarayesh, “Influence of Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Inflation on Common Stock Returns of Amman Stock Exchange, Jordan,” International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, vol. 5, no. 10, pp. 589–601, 2017.Google Scholar
- A. Y. Mikhaylov, “Volatility spillover effect between stock and exchange rate in oil exporting countries,” vol. 8, no. 3, 2018.Google Scholar
- M. Aftab, R. Ahmad, I. Ismail, and K. Phylaktis, “Economic integration and the currency and equity markets nexus,” Int J Fin Econ, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 5278–5301, 2021, doi: 10.1002/ijfe.2065.Google ScholarCross Ref
- M. E. Hamrita and A. Trifi, “The Relationship between Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A Wavelet Analysis,” vol. 1, no. 4, 2011.Google Scholar
- T. A. Ojeyinka, “Exchange Rate Volatility and the Performance of Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria (1981 – 2016),” African Journal of Economic Review, Volume, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 27–41, 2019.Google Scholar
- S. Singhal, S. Choudhary, and P. C. Biswal, “Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico,” Resources Policy, vol. 60, pp. 255–261, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.01.004.Google ScholarCross Ref
- M. Bahmani-Oskooee and A. C. Arize, “On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: Evidence from Africa,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 913–939, Mar. 2020, doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1543582.Google ScholarCross Ref
- M. Nuhu, “Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Inflation in Nigeria,” Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Economics and Finance, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 26–38, 2021, doi: 10.33094/26410265.2021.31.26.38.Google ScholarCross Ref
- N. V. Phuc and V. H. Duc, “Macroeconomics Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-Through: New Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 57, no. 1, pp. 5–20, 2021, doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1534682.Google ScholarCross Ref
- M. I. MUGABLEH, “Causal Links among Stock Market Development Determinants: Evidence from Jordan,” The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 543–549, 2021, doi: 10.13106/JAFEB.2021.VOL8.NO5.0543.Google ScholarCross Ref
- K. B. Baral, “Effects of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in Nepal,” Janapriya J. Interdisciplinary Stud., vol. 8, pp. 87–96, 2019, doi: 10.3126/jjis.v8i0.27302.Google ScholarCross Ref
- K. Ahn, D. Lee, S. Sohn, and B. Yang, “Stock market uncertainty and economic fundamentals: an entropy-based approach,” Quantitative Finance, vol. 19, no. 7, pp. 1151–1163, 2019, doi: 10.1080/14697688.2019.1579922.Google ScholarCross Ref
- S. Johamen and K. Jtiselius, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 169–210, 1990.Google ScholarCross Ref
- P. K. Mishra, “The Dynamics of Relationship between exports and economic growth in India,” International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 53–70, 2011.Google Scholar
- M. E. Hamrita and A. Trifi, “The Relationship between Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A Wavelet Analysis,” vol. 1, no. 4, 2011.Google Scholar
Recommendations
Stock Market, Exchange Rate and Chinese Money Demand
ISME '10: Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference of Information Science and Management Engineering - Volume 02The paper examines the long-term relationship among RMB exchange rate, stock market, interest rate, consumption, general real money balance and their dynamics from 2000 to 2009 by employing Johanson and SVAR methods. The result shows: exchange rate and ...
Research on the interaction among interest rate, exchange rate fluctuations and capital market
The interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations have very significant impacts on the domestic economy and capital market development. Adopted from the traditional theory such as the interest rate parity, capital flow theory and the classical theory of ...
Research on the interaction between RMB interest rate, exchange rate fluctuations and Chinese capital market
CEA'09: Proceedings of the 3rd WSEAS international conference on Computer engineering and applicationsThe interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations have very significant impacts on the domestic economy and capital market development. Adopted from the traditional theory such as the interest rate parity, capital flow theory and the classical theory of ...
Comments