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CreST: A Credible Spatiotemporal Learning Framework for Uncertainty-aware Traffic Forecasting

Published: 04 March 2024 Publication History

Abstract

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting plays a critical role in intelligent transportation systems, which empowers diverse urban services. Existing traffic forecasting frameworks usually devise various learning strategies to capture spatiotemporal correlations from the perspective of volume itself. However, we argue that previous traffic predictions are still unreliable due to two aspects. First, the influences of context factor-wise interactions on dynamic region-wise correlations are under exploitation. Second, the dynamics induce the credibility issue of forecasting that has not been well-explored. In this paper, we exploit the informative traffic-related context factors to jointly tackle the dynamic regional heterogeneity and explain the stochasticity, towards a credible uncertainty-aware traffic forecasting. Specifically, to internalize the dynamic contextual influences into learning process, we design a context-cross relational embedding to capture interactions between each context, and generate virtual graph topology to dynamically relate pairwise regions with context embedding. To quantify the prediction credibility, we attribute data-side aleatoric uncertainty to contexts and re-utilize them for aleatoric uncertainty quantification. Then we couple a dual-pipeline learning with the same objective to produce the discrepancy of model outputs and quantify model-side epistemic uncertainty. These two uncertainties are fed through a spatiotemporal network for extracting uncertainty evolution patterns. Finally, comprehensive experiments and model deployments have corroborated the credibility of our framework.

Supplementary Material

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Introduction to credible spatiotemporal learning framework, which is accepted by WSDM 2024.

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Cited By

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  • (2025)Toward Synthetic Network Traffic Generating in NTN-Enabled IoT: A Generative AI ApproachIEEE Internet of Things Journal10.1109/JIOT.2024.346820912:2(2174-2187)Online publication date: 15-Jan-2025
  • (2025)GPT4TFP: Spatio-temporal fusion large language model for traffic flow predictionNeurocomputing10.1016/j.neucom.2025.129562625(129562)Online publication date: Apr-2025
  • (2024)Spatial-Temporal Large Language Model for Traffic Prediction2024 25th IEEE International Conference on Mobile Data Management (MDM)10.1109/MDM61037.2024.00025(31-40)Online publication date: 24-Jun-2024

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cover image ACM Conferences
WSDM '24: Proceedings of the 17th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining
March 2024
1246 pages
ISBN:9798400703713
DOI:10.1145/3616855
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Published: 04 March 2024

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Author Tags

  1. conditional prediction
  2. traffic prediction
  3. uncertainty quantification
  4. urban computing

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View all
  • (2025)Toward Synthetic Network Traffic Generating in NTN-Enabled IoT: A Generative AI ApproachIEEE Internet of Things Journal10.1109/JIOT.2024.346820912:2(2174-2187)Online publication date: 15-Jan-2025
  • (2025)GPT4TFP: Spatio-temporal fusion large language model for traffic flow predictionNeurocomputing10.1016/j.neucom.2025.129562625(129562)Online publication date: Apr-2025
  • (2024)Spatial-Temporal Large Language Model for Traffic Prediction2024 25th IEEE International Conference on Mobile Data Management (MDM)10.1109/MDM61037.2024.00025(31-40)Online publication date: 24-Jun-2024

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