Empirical Study on the Factors Influencing Asparagus Prices Based on VAR Model

In recent years, as people have become increasingly health-conscious, there is a growing emphasis on green vegetables. Asparagus, being a premium vegetable, has garnered more attention, leading to a continuous increase in market demand, and the asparagus industry has experienced rapid growth. To investigate the factors influencing the price fluctuations of asparagus, this study, based on statistical data from 2018 to 2023, constructed a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Following tests for data stationarity, cointegration, model construction, and stability, this study employed impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis. It aimed to explore the impact of consumer preferences (asparagus Baidu index) and competitor prices (broccoli prices) on asparagus prices and analyze the interrelationship between these factors to determine which factors significantly affect asparagus price fluctuations. The research results indicate a significant two-way causal relationship between consumer preferences and asparagus prices, implying a bidirectional influence between them. Consumer preferences have a predictive role in asparagus price fluctuations, underscoring the importance of market demand in affecting price volatility. On the other hand, broccoli prices do not significantly influence asparagus prices, suggesting that competitors have limited impact on the price fluctuations of this premium vegetable.