Jacob Belkin
ABSTRACT
While the results generated by Urban Dynamics are problematic these results are less important than the fact that Forrester posed a challenge to social scientists and urban modelers alike by including phenomena that are generally omitted in urban simulations. This paper focuses on one such phenomena, social mobility, and addresses the questions of whether social mobility is sufficiently important to be included in urban simulations and whether Forrester's modeling of this phenomena is adequate.
A consideration of the role of social mobility in determining the population structure in urban areas indicates that social mobility is relevant to a wide class of dynamic simulations in which the socio-economic structure of the simulated population is important. An analysis of the migration patterns generated by the Urban Dynamics model and experimentation with a modified model indicates that Forrester's formulation of the industrial and job sector of the model is incompatible with social mobility. This result is not only relevant to those seeking to refine or apply Urban Dynamics but also suggests that in general the simulation of social mobility must be complemented by simulating a changing labor market structure.
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Index Terms
- Social and spatial mobility and urban dynamics
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