Francis J. Brewerton
ABSTRACT
Increased emphasis on solving social problems has demanded better manpower planning in all areas, but particularly in health services planning.
A unique forecasting model is developed for predicting probabilistically the number of physicians required for specified future time periods. Each factor in the model is treated as a random variable with a triangular probability distribution. Exercising the model produces a probability distribution for the incremental number of physicians needed for the specified time period.
The simulation results indicate that community health planners are able to assess future physician requirements probabilistically and with greater confidence than with traditional point estimation techniques.
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Index Terms
- Determination of physician manpower requirements using a simulative forecasting model
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