ABSTRACT
Simulation is a method of analysis that has found widespread application. Almost all simulations involve some probabilistic aspects and are known as Monte Carlo simulations. Because of the probabilistic aspects of these types of simulations the outputs are themselves probabilistic in nature. Actually, the outputs are random variables and as such, possess distribution functions which must be estimated.
The ever present question of length of run is with us. In order to ascertain whether or not the estimated proportions (the answers) are within the desired limits of accuracy, an estimate of variance is required. Herein we shall address ourselves to sampling methods for estimating a single proportion emphasizing statistical properties of the estimates.
- 1.Conway, R.W., "Some Tactical Problems in Digital Simulation," in Management Science, Vol. 10, No. 1, October, 1963.Google Scholar
- 2.Fishman, George S., and Kiviat, Phillip J., "The Analysis of Simulation—Generated Time Series," in Management Science, Vol. 13, No. 7, March, 1967.Google Scholar
- 3.Kabak, Irwin W., "Stopping Rules for Queueing Simulations" in Operations Research, Vol. 16, No. 2, March-April, 1968.Google Scholar
- 4.Klotz, Jerome, "Statistical Inference in Bernoulli Trials with Dependence" in Annals of Statistics, Vol. 1, No. 2, March, 1973.Google ScholarCross Ref
- 5.Saaty, Thomas L., Elements of Queueing Theory, McGraw-Hill, 1961.Google Scholar
- 6.Wilks, S.S., Mathematical Statistics, Wiley & Sons, 1962.Google Scholar
Index Terms
- Ratio estimates in Monte Carlo simulations
Recommendations
Randomized Dimension Reduction for Monte Carlo Simulations
We present a new unbiased algorithm that estimates the expected value of f(U) via Monte Carlo simulation, where U is a vector of d independent random variables, and f is a function of d variables. We assume that f does not equally depend on all its ...
Convergence analysis of multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation
The multifidelity Monte Carlo method provides a general framework for combining cheap low-fidelity approximations of an expensive high-fidelity model to accelerate the Monte Carlo estimation of statistics of the high-fidelity model output. In this work, ...
Comments